CFNAI Revised Higher for July, Both Headline and 3-Month Average
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated slower, “but still above-average growth” in August, while economic growth in July was revised significantly higher. The CFNAI came in +0.79 in August after an initially reported +1.18 in July, which was revised higher to +2.54.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 1.18 to a high of 1.95. The consensus forecast was 1.88. Two of the four broad categories of indicators made positive contributions in August, but all four fell from an upwardly revised July.
The CFNAI-MA3 — the three-month moving average for the index — moved down to +3.05 in August, from +4.23 in July. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to +0.62 in August from +0.73 in July.
Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 40 made negative contributions. Twenty-nine (29) indicators improved from July to August, while 56 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.