Projection: Donald Trump “Highly Likely” to Win New Hampshire Primary

Donald Trump Has a 74% Chance of Winning the NH GOP Primary

Donald Trump speaks beside former U.S. Senator Scott Brown at a campaign rally in Portsmouth, N.H., in January. (Photo: Reuters)

UPDATE: Donald Trump is “Highly Likely” to win the New Hampshire Republican primary and currently enjoys a 72% chance of victory. That’s two points down from Monday, but still a significant advantage. On the other side of the aisle, Bernie Sanders has an astounding 97% chance of winning the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

ORIGINAL: Donald Trump’s chances of winning the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday have increased, according to PPD’s Election Projection Model. As of Monday, just one day before the vote, Trump has a 74% chance of carrying the Granite State, which marks the highest level ever calculated by PPD’s model.

Trump’s closest rival, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, is moving in the wrong direction with 11.5%, down from 16% on Friday. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is on the move at 10% probability, up from just 6.5% on Friday. However, he and the rest of the GOP field are still far behind the national and statewide frontrunner.

Trump, who has topped 77 consecutive surveys since July, leads on the PPD raw average of New Hampshire Republican primary polls by 17% and weighted average by 16%. We have seen a consolidation of independents around Trump, who now carries the ever-important bloc of Granite State voters with a whopping 38%.

The likelihood of a Trump win in the New Hampshire Republican primary (74%) translates into a “Highly Likely” rating on the PPD Election Projection Model, the most accurate election forecast model in 2014. That said, we view the polling as more likely to overstate Trump’s support than understate it, though that’s not impossible. Nevertheless, with Kasich on the rise, PPD’s model projects Trump will carry the state with at least 24% and is most likely (78%) to win with somewhere between 24% to 32% of the vote.

There is still a significant chance The Donald tops 29.1% of the vote, but that will depend on the way the large number of undecided voters move at the end. That said, Trump’s strength comes from the solidity of his supporters. They are dug in and have dug in deeper as the election has drawn nearer. Other candidates cannot make such a claim and have support in some cases as soft as 60%.

The bottom line: This race is Trump’s to lose.