Tropical Storm Dorian Could Strengthen to Category 2, Threaten Florida

Tropical Storm Dorian could strengthen to a Category 2 as it approaches Florida, though models vary and confidence in the track remains low.

Above is the Euro model (ECMWF) for the next 240 hours beginning on August 28, 2019. Below is the GFS for the same period of time.

The storm was originally forecast to strengthen to a hurricane ahead of Puerto Rico, but the northern turn would ensure it avoids disruption from mountainous island regions.

“The land interaction could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center said.

“Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.”