Above is a map of ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state outlining how many Medicaid enrollments each state has reported, versus how many private enrollments, which includes those who may not even pay in the end or by the deadline (note: the administration’s numbers for the second half of Dec. have not been added yet, because they are an abstract, unofficial claim that cannot be quantified).
As previously reported, the constant re-assessing of payment deadlines has caused mass confusion along consumers, many of whom are having a difficult time navigating the new law.
The map above shows the latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state for the period from 10/01/13 to 11/30/13 based on data reported to the Department of Health and Human Services as of 12/10/13.
At his end-of-the-year press conference, President Obama said that 1.2 million people have been added to the ObamaCare enrollment numbers, citing a steep increase in interest over the month of December. However, according to Health and Human Services, a look at the ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state paint a frightening picture of an even more out-of-control federal budget, induced by an over-expansion of Medicaid.
By the end of March, the Obama administration hopes to increase the number of people on Medicaid by 9 million, and the number in private plans by 7 million. But nationwide Medicaid enrollments totaling 803,077 so far have far outpaced enrollments in private plans on the exchanges, which have only totaled 364,682. And the ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state are worse than they look nationwide.
It is important to note that both the ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state and nationwide include applicants who may or may not have made their first premium payment either directly by the Marketplace or to the issuer. Furthermore, because of the secrecy from the Obama administration, not only can we cannot determine how many are paying consumers, but figures pertinent to the potential for an insurance death spiral, i.e. the number of healthy vs. sick; young vs. old, etc., are also not known.
In some states, including Iowa and Washington, those who selected a private plan make-up just 10 percent of the total ObamaCare enrollment numbers. In Washington, 154,060 have reportedly been enrolled in Medicaid, while just 17,770 selected a private plan. In Iowa, 7,382 have reportedly been enrolled in Medicaid, while just 757 have selected a private plan. In some state it is worse still, such is the case with Oregon, whose Medicaid signups represent over 90 percent of all ObamaCare enrollment numbers for the state.
The states are assessed by severity, with deep blue representing states projected to have a stable enough enrollment ratio to protect their financial solvency, at least in the near-term. These states — barring detrimental information regarding the risk pools — will likely meet the administrations Medicaid to private ObamaCare enrollment ratio.
Most of the states in the dark blue/green shade appear to be in long-term trouble, but we simply do not have enough information to make that assessment at this time. There are some, however, that may make the necessary ratio, but again, we simply do not have enough information to know that.
Those states in light red are headed for real financial problems, with it likely being the case that they will be far off the administration’s own ratio, causing them to deal with serious short-falls in the future.
But, the states in dark red are on the far end of the spectrum, and are headed for financial Armageddon. These states will definitely be off the mark barring some serious turn around numbers being reported by HHS in January, which unfortunately, population data for each individual state makes very unlikely.
Again, because we do not know the ratio of healthy vs. sick; young vs. old, etc., we are likely giving the Obama administration the benefit of the doubt. It would be a big bone we are throwing, because the reality is more than likely — based on concerns voiced by insurers and various surveys — that the balance is what we expected it to be, with too few young and healthy in the risk pools.
Worth noting, is that the administration’s decision to delay mandates based on political expediency, probably hurt the ObamaCare enrollment numbers by state. If consumers would have been thrown into the pools, it is likely that many of them would have signed up, which would have off-set the ratio.
In Massachusetts and Hawaii, there is not enough information being made available by HHS to determine how ObamaCare will impact their budgets or projected shortfalls. In Massachusetts, however, it is both obvious and unnecessary due to RomneyCare.[table id=9 /]
Overall, the average Medicaid share of all the total ObamaCare enrollment is approximately 70 percent, far above the ratio the Obama administration was shooting for. According to a report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, total federal health expenditures under ObamaCare were projected to top $5 trillion by 2022. But that was based on projections that the Obama administration would hit their target, which thus far, they are far from achieving.
We at PeoplesPunditDaily.com will keep updating you as the Health and Human Services Department makes more information available for scrutiny.