Looking at the Status of the 2014 Midterm Governor Races

The 2010 midterm governor races couldn’t look more different from how the 2014 midterm governor races are shaping out to look. Instead of 24 governorships without an incumbent running, we’re more likely to see a mere half-dozen or so. This means approximately 30 of the 36 incumbents will be on the November ballot — the largest number in over a half-century.

In the 2010 midterm election, only 13 of the 37 incumbent state governors were running for reelection. That vast amount of open statehouses – 24 – produced tons of turnover. Republicans added a net six governorships, including the plums of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.* The GOP’s new total of 29 governorships was the most the party had held in a decade (Republicans hold 30 of 50 now).

Since 1960, approximately a whole 4 of every 5 incumbent governors who made a general election ballot have in fact been reelected. If this historical average holds true in the 2014 midterm, then this would naturally limit the amount of turnovers, which is good news for the GOP.

However, as it stands now, Democrats appear to have a more favorable political chance to defeat Republican incumbents. Govs. Rick Scott (FL), Rick Snyder (MI) and Paul LePage (ME) all are in what appear to be “toss-up” races, although they cannot in any way yet be classified as underdogs, unlike Gov. Tom Corbett (PA). It is possible that the governors who are in trouble and in states that have falling unemployment can capitalize on the economic improvements. Why take a chance with another guy or gal?

Still, even in an internal GOP poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, headed by former Romney pollster Neil Newhouse, shows Corbett to be struggling against unknown Democratic opponents and the problem is in large part his own base. The crew over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has classified Corbett under a rare case of an incumbent underdog, and I would not disagree. His approval rating cannot seem to get above 35%, and a recent Quinnipiac poll was very bad news indeed for the Governor’s reelection prospects.

The Republicans’ best shot to defeat an incumbent governor might be in Connecticut, where Gov. Dan Malloy (D) according to another recent Quinnipiac poll is trailing Foley. The other two Democratic incumbents who are currently in political trouble — Lincoln Chafee (D-RI) and Pat Quinn (D-IL) — are much more likely to lose in their primaries before making it to the general election.

Chart 1 shows Crystal Ball’s rating changes for the current state of the upcoming gubernatorial race, and Map 1 above shows every state’s rating. Their full gubernatorial race chart with all the declared and potential candidates, follows at the end of the article.

Below is the rating chart for each state. For a detailed analysis of each state, click contact and fill out the form. Select other in the inquiries request, add the state you wish to receive information on the political landscape for, and I will email it back to you.

Chart 2: Crystal Ball 2014 gubernatorial ratings

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