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Monday, July 15, 2024
HomePollsOff Of Big NJ Win, Christie vs Clinton Is A Dead Heat

Off Of Big NJ Win, Christie vs Clinton Is A Dead Heat

Coming off a big reelection victory, Gov. Christie is enjoying a big bump in national polling, and now “it’s a dead heat,” according to pollster Scott Rasmussen.

A new Rasmussen national presidential poll found that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, 43 percent would choose Democrat and former Benghazi-plagued Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but 41 percent would vote for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, while 9 percent picked some other choice, and 8 percent were undecided.

Another poll conducted by Quinnipiac university shows Christie leading Clinton 43 to 42, with both candidate garnering 85 percent of their base, but Christie trounces Clinton 48 to 32 among independents. The Rasmussen poll tells a bit of a different story.

According to Rasmussen, warming up the base in his party may be Gov. Christie’s biggest challenge, as Clinton has the support of 77 percent of Democrats, while 73 percent of Republicans support Christie. However, unaffiliated voters — which is Rasmussen’s wording instead of independents — break big for Christie by 42 percent to 33 percent for Clinton.

Of course, as I always caution, how accurately a poll can predict an election that is three years away is uncertain. We all remember Clinton was the favorite before Obama railroaded her in 2008, and then again, so was “America’s Mayor” Rudy Giuliani. Furthermore, Christie is also just coming off a monstrous 22-point reelection win a week ago.

“It’s a long way off and no one is officially a candidate yet, but the Hillary Clinton-Chris Christie race to the White House is neck-and-neck before the campaign even saddles up,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Still, the Christie vs Clinton trend shows that Gov. Chris Christie is the flavor of the month, at least. Also, for those who believe that demographics are becoming an insurmountable hill for the Republican Party to climb, the trend suggests they are equally foolish.

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* Christopher Christie)
                     Nov 13  Oct 02  Jul 12  Mar 07
                     2013    2013    2013    2013*

Clinton              42      49      46      45
Christie             43      36      40      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3       4
DK/NA                 9       9       8      12

As of now, unsurprisingly, Clinton has a lead among women voters, but Christie has a “comparable lead” among men voters, according to Rasmussen. In the Quinnipac survey, Christie tops Clinton among men, but loses women by a smaller margin. Among men, Christie leads Clinton 47 – 35 percent, while women favor Clinton by a smaller 48 – 39 percent.

Age far as age group, 52 percent of voters under 40 choose Clinton in the Rasmussen survey, while a plurality of older voters — 48 percent — choose Gov. Christie. Quinnipiac found the same 48 percent favor Christie among voters 65+, while just 38 percent favor Clinton.

The New Jersey governor has some work to do with conservative voters in his own party. Even though 65 percent of conservatives prefer Christie in a presidential matchup against Clinton, more of Clinton’s base — 84 percent of liberals and 51 percent of moderates – favor Clinton. The same is true in the Quinnipiac survey, with 15 percent of self-identified conservatives breaking for Clinton, while just 10 percent of liberals support Christie.

It is worth mentioning that Chris Christie is pulling 12 percent of the black vote from Clinton, which in reality, wouldn’t even be a close race. With Republicans garnering upwards of 65 – 68 percent of the white vote, 12 percent of the Democratic base would be a comfortable win for the Republican candidate.

People’s Pundit Daily also recently reported that 43 percent of all voters think the circumstances surrounding the murder of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya last year will hurt Clinton’s candidacy. Clinton was secretary of State at the time the incident took place, and subsequently lied about the events to the American people and families of the murdered Americans. The mother of Sean Smith, one of the Americans who perished in the Benghazi attack, has said that she will run interference.

“If Hillary thinks she is going to run for president, she’s got another thing coming.”

Written by

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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