If voter expectations counts for anything, which it does, then the Republican Party will tout a new poll showing the majority of Americans now say they will retake control of the Senate in 2014. Further, most voters say a GOP Senate means they will see a noticeable change in their lives, and considering just 26.5 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, the poll is all-around bad news for Democrats.
A new Rasmussen Reports survey found that 54 percent of likely voters think it is at least somewhat likely that the GOP will retake the Senate, which is a 10-point increase from the previous survey in early January. The number includes 20 percent who say it is very likely, while only 29 percent consider a Republican takeover of the Senate to be unlikely. However, that number includes only 5 percent of likely voters who say it is not at all likely.
Interestingly, the latest generic congressional ballot, which Rasmussen tracks on weekly basis, shows Democrats with a small 3-point edge over Republicans. Yet, the data actually suggests the poll may be worse for the Democrats than it appears at first glance. Early generic ballot polling has consistently underestimated Republican support, likely due to the lack of likely voter models in the average.
But that’s not even the worst of it.
Democrats currently lead Republicans by a slightly smaller 2-point margin on the PPD average, which historical data suggest wouldn’t even translate into a 3-seat pick-up in the House, let alone save Harry Reid from Mitch McConnell in the Senate. Currently, according to the PPD 2014 Senate Map Predictions model, the Republican Party is favored to win control of the Senate, picking up a net gain of 6 – 8 seats.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 2, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.