Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was once favored by many to win the Hoosier State, is now getting crushed by Donald Trump in internal Indiana primary polls. With just a few days to go before the votes are all counted, separate polling data obtained by PPD and conducted for the two campaigns show Sen. Cruz trailing Mr. Trump by double digits.
The Cruz campaign, which would not release their numbers as of today and did not respond when asked about the new figures, claimed Thursday he was down in the state by only 8 to 10 points. However, polling we have seen showed Sen. Cruz down by double digits over the weekend, which was prior to his poor performance on Tuesday.
On the hand, Mr. Trump clocked in over the 40% mark in each of the days the surveys were conducted. The Trump campaign’s numbers paint a far rosier picture than recent public polling. As of Thursday, Mr. Trump led Sen. Cruz by 19 points, 51% to 32%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who refused to tell his voters to support Sen. Cruz, was polling at 13%.
Sen. Cruz had hoped to pretend the five-state sweep following Mr. Trump’s big win in New York wasn’t indicative of results to come; certainly nothing to suggest he was gaining momentum.
“Numerous anti-Trump super PACs knew the demographics gave them their best shot to stop the frontrunner. They spent millions, they had the lead and they lost it,” said. PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Since then, Sen. Cruz has even taken the unprecedented step to name a vice presidential pick. I doubt an endorsement by Gov. Mike Pence, who isn’t at all as popular as he once was, will change that before Tuesday.”
“Besides, I’d take Bobby Knight over Gov. Pence if I had to choose.”
Knight, nicknamed “The General,” is the popular and former head coach at Indiana. He endorsed The Donald and hit the trail with him on Wednesday. For his part, Gov. Pence endorsed Sen. Cruz Friday afternoon.
(UPDATE: As reader noted, previously stated “State,” which should have read U. H/T David)
As far as public polling, a brand new [content_tooltip id=”38766″ title=”American Research Group (ARG)”] finds Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz by 9 points, 41% to 32%. While ARG has posted mixed results this cycle, it appears even from the Texas senator’s own polling that 31%-32% is a stubborn ceiling of support in what has become a must-win state for him.
A separate new survey conducted by Clout Research (R), which doesn’t yet have a track record substantial enough to assess and grade via the PPD Pollster Scorecard, found Mr. Trump leading in a much closer two-point race, 37% to 35%. By all accounts, both from public and private polling, those results indicate an outlier.
“What we know is that voting is already underway and Sen. Cruz was trailing significantly during a duration of that time,” Mr. Baris added. “When campaigns don’t want to leak their polls is typically means bad news for them. The Trump campaign was all too eager to hand them out to reporters. All the polling firms agree that high turnout is bad news for Sen. Cruz. We’ll only know for sure Tuesday night.”
Meanwhile, overall, Sen. Cruz trails Mr. Trump by 6 points on the PPD average of polls.
UPDATE: A poll conducted by IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Cruz leading by 16 points. The samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.
“Like I said,” Baris responded to the poll, “the Cruz campaign doesn’t believe they are leading and admit they once had a lead. It was never this large. We never think it’s a good idea to dismiss any poll as an outlier outright, but I am more than skeptical to say the least. Let’s wait to see what the more reliable pollsters say this weekend.”
David / April 29, 2016
The General was coach at Indiana University, not Indiana State
Patricia Daniel / April 29, 2016
The Cruz campaign, which would not release their numbers as of today and did not respond when asked about these new figures, claimed Thursday he was down in the state by only 8 to 10 points. However, polling we have seen showed him down by 13 points over the weekend prior to his poor performance on Tuesday.
Mr. Trump was over the 40% mark in each of the days the surveys had been conducted. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has numbers that paint a far rosier picture than recent public polling. Mr. Trump leads Sen. Cruz by 19 points, 51% to 32%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who refused to tell his voters to support Sen. Cruz, was polling at 13%.
Anonymous / April 30, 2016
LYING TED AND KARZY CARLY both parroted the same thing they been trying to sell for at least a week now! That Donald Trump is THE other side of the coin to Clinton! And how he is the establishment!! What is he thinking! How can Trump be a politican when this is the first time in his life,he ever ran for any kind of office! Does LYING ted think that we are stupid!!i truly pray that God gives the people of Indiana the only man who will take care of us and is the strongest man since Reagan to fix all the problems! Even Somme republicans say they will walk away if he is president! What can be better then that!!! He’s already cleaning house band giving the country back to the people where it belongs!!! Thank you Indiana for securing THE death of lying Ted! Just think, we won,t have to look at his lying smirking face after Tuesday!
sam / July 23, 2016
Turns out Ted & Carly were correct! Trump is the other side of Hillary (financially & politically); and Trump has long been in bed with the “establishment,” e.g., Pelosi, Reid, McConnell, DT’s “golfing & texting buddy” John Boehner, Chuck Schumer, and every other establishment sleaze in politics.
Cemented last week by RNC & Trump joining forces to steamroll over the delegates at the convention to take away their rights as delegates to vote their consciences. And it’s been obvious for months that Trump & Priebus & RNC have worked together to stop Cruz. Mission accomplished. Now DT will roll over & give the election to Hillary, who, he told us, was a great secretary of state, and would be a “terrific” president.
Bobby / April 29, 2016
Let the fools of the so called establishment continue to throw good money after bad at the Cruz/Carly/’C’asich sinking ship. Do they still expect to get a return on their investment?
GumBoocho / April 30, 2016
IMHO: Knight is no boost for Serpent Tongue Trump. I guess this article writer hasn’t seen the latest poll published that has Cruz double-digit cruzing ahead of Serpent Tongue Trump
Anonymous / April 30, 2016
I guess you didn’t read the entire article where he references this poll, the IPFW-Downs poll, and explains why it is considered an outlier. It mentions that samples were not weighted and interviews began April 13. Further, he mentions that the Cruz campaign does not believe they are leading, and admit that they have never led by that amount of margin.
nancy / April 30, 2016
Fivethirtyeight is using that outlier poll and has Ted Cruz 65 percent chance of winning Indiana I find this hard to beleive
Anonymous / April 30, 2016
Hope you don’t choke on those words after Tuesday. Polls published by who.?
DK Paol / May 1, 2016
Ted Crux is such a BIG liar that even fellow politicians in the Establishment like Boehner call him Lucifer. Politicians hate each other bcoz they cheat each other. But Ted Cruz cheated them BIG TIME.
I never thought we will have such a pathetic liar among our cheating politicians.
Jeanette / May 1, 2016
Go Indiana go! Making us proud! #PresidentTrump 2016! America first! God blessed Mr. Trump to make our country great again!
Rosario Cracchiolo / May 1, 2016
here’s proof #lyintrump lied. i guess you never learned how to research. https://t.co/v49Vd4FvpZ