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HomePollsNew Indiana Republican Primary Poll Confirms Big Trump Lead

New Indiana Republican Primary Poll Confirms Big Trump Lead


Donald Trump, left, was joined by former Indiana University coach Bobby Knight at a rally in Indianapolis on Wednesday, April 27, while Sen. Ted Cruz, right, takes questions from the media before a rally at the Johnson County Fairgrounds in Franklin, Ind., Monday, April 25, 2016. (Photos: AP/Michael Conroy)

A new Indiana Republican Primary poll confirms Donald Trump has a double-digit lead over Sen. Ted Cruz, mirroring internal polling data obtained by PPD earlier this week. A [content_tooltip id=”39829″] finds Mr. Trump leading Sen. Cruz by 15 points, 49% to 34%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who refused to tell his voters to support Sen. Cruz, was polling at 13%.

Worth noting, these numbers are almost identical to the results of internal campaign polling from the Trump campaign. They are also in stark contrast to a IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics poll showing Sen. Cruz leading by 16 points. As PPD explained, the samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.

“Like I said, the Cruz campaign doesn’t even believe they are leading and admit they once had a lead,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “It was never as large as that poll suggested. We never think it’s a good idea to dismiss any poll as an outlier outright, but I am more than skeptical to say the least. Now that we have more reliable pollsters releasing data, one that has shown a propensity to underestimate Donald Trump’s support, it’s safe to assume it was an outlier.”

Overall, Sen. Cruz trails Mr. Trump by a much smaller margin on the PPD average of polls. However, recent news of the Cruz-Kasich alliance isn’t going over very well with Republican primary voters in The Hoosier State, as 58% say they disapprove of the two “teaming up in Indiana and doing everything possible to beat Trump.” More than a fifth (22%) said it impacted their inevitable decision.

Mr. Trump is also the second choice for nearly a fifth (18%) of primary voters, which would put him over the 50-percent threshold. That undercuts the oft-made claim and narrative pushed by the Cruz campaign and pundits, which argued Mr. Trump would lose in a one-on-one matchup. PPD has never subscribed to that rather statistically impossible scenario and, in fact, has pushed back on it the entire cycle.

Sen. Cruz had hoped a last-minute endorsement from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence would give him a head of steam going into Tuesday, but his overall approval rating is only 43%. Further, Gov. Pence didn’t exactly give the Texas senator a ringing endorsement, spending the first half of the interview praising Mr. Trump for talking about the impact immigration and trade have had on jobs.

As PPD previously reported, The Hooiser State has bled manufacturing jobs during the period impacted by the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization. Mexico and China, two countries repeated cited by the frontrunner, have been top benefactors of that economic exodus.

While Mr. Trump hopes to put the Republican nomination to bed by defeating Sen. Cruz in Indiana, his rivals are hoping to deny him the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. As we’ve seen in previous states, at least as of late, primary voters still believe he should get the nomination if he fails to secure the majority. A whopping 64% of GOP primary voters in Indiana say the “candidate with the most votes in the primaries” should get the nod.

Mr. Trump surpassed Mitt Romney in the popular vote following his five-state sweep last week and is now on track to blow past the record set by former President George W. Bush in 2000.

There are 57 delegates up for grabs in the Indiana Republican Primary on Tuesday May 3. While it’s not a must-win for Mr. Trump–though it would make his path significantly easier–it has become the last stand for Sen. Cruz and the anti-Trump forces.

“This is it,” Baris said. “No matter what you hear on Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday morning. If The Donald beats the senator on Tuesday, there are those previously loyal to the #NeverTrump movement that have told us it will be time to pack it in. If Sen. Cruz doesn’t recognize that, then all he will be doing is helping to elect Hillary Clinton.”

Baris also said that there hasn’t been the alignment of the political stars akin to what took place in Wisconsin, where Sen. Cruz was able to pull off a win and buy himself a few more weeks. However, weeks before the primary there was a measurable movement toward Sen. Cruz, which has not been the case in Indiana. In fact, the trend has been moving against him.

“He’ll have a difficult decision to make if he can’t pull off an upset.”

Written by

Led by R. D. Baris, the People's Pundit, the PPD Elections Staff conducts polling and covers news about latest polls, election results and election data.

Latest comment


    NO WALL, to stop the flow of drugs and protecting our teens; illegal aliens and terrorists.
    There will be no internal immigration enforcement as Republicans still demand cheap labor and Democrats more voters in their corral.
    With President Obamas overreaching executive orders, in direct opposition to Congress and ARTICLE 1 of the Constitution, with millions of illegal aliens pouring through 1000’s of miles of porous border and with US Border Agents given strict instructions not apprehend– ALL STATES ARE BORDER STATES?
    Gun laws will continue to be chipped away, until we cannot defend our properties and our lives.
    Most promises by the insiders as Cruz, Kasick, Hillary, or Sanders will never materialize.
    Health, and different classifications of Insurance will keep there monopoly as Special Interests and donors will buy the votes of legislators.
    Military will not be revitalized, that has been decimated by Obama and will feel fall short of protecting this country
    Veteran’s benefits were slashed by $6 billion dollars by Cruz to support illegal aliens.
    A fair tax system for everybody including corporations, so there will not be any excuse to remove to Mexico, China, Japan, India and many other nations.
    Clean out the corruption and billions of dollars in waste in Washington.
    Trump will repeal thousands of useless bureaucratic rules and regulations that has disfranchised thousands of small business and credited with the loss of jobs.
    Coal mines will no longer be treated as a pariah, and will get a new lease on life with ‘clean coal’ and natural gas and oil allowed to investigate new areas of abandonment energy, so we can become less dependant unstable countries.

    TRUMP will stop following through with the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) that will be yet another nail in Americas coffin, taking millions of more companies overseas and taking millions of more jobs with them. Carrier in India is a perfect example of a manufacturer of Air Conditioning units goes to Mexico, closing down another huge plant and firing 1400 loyal workers. Hillary Clinton announced last October that she no longer supports the international trade deal; despite supporting it while serving as secretary of state –and once calling it the “gold standard.” Hillary Clinton campaigned for NAFTA in 1998 even though it has cost states hundreds of thousands of jobs. It’s what’s wrong with politics today. Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected.” ALL THREE OF THESE INSIDER POLITICIANS HAVE BEEN BOUGHT BY WALL STREET, GEORGE SOROS, an utra-Socialist, and wealthy donors. They must bow their knee to the people who were the benefactors to their campaigns.

    Madam Hillary has a dark and lurid past along with Bill who hands are always wandering to the younger generation. If Trump V. Hillary is the nominees her past will be blown into the open, beginning with her Whitewater scandal. Readers should do their own research, and your not going to like what you find?

    Its to be remembered that both Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, John Kasick current Governor of Ohio voted for the NAFTA, the Mexican free Trade agreement and also gave their approval for the Transpacific Partnership of 12 more countries that includes Vietnam, that will take our jobs and giant companies, leaving a wasteland of empty buildings, workshops and dead parking lots extending from New York, the Northeast and to the Pacific coast.

    The Omnibus budget four months ago the Republicans didn’t make a stand against the $2.2 TRILLION DOLLARS THAT PASSED giving this wretched President everything he wanted. Money for the millions of illegal alien benefits, more money for the 100.000 Syrian Refugees who will have to be financial supported, instead of being safeguarded in a safe zone in their own countries. There is a huge amount of budget funding for a failing Obamacare, and many other urgent issues such as National Security.


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