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HomeNewsEconomyChicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Beats Forecast in April

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Beats Forecast in April

SUV parts are fabricated in the stamping facility at the General Motors Assembly Plant on June 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)
SUV parts are fabricated in the stamping facility at the General Motors Assembly Plant on June 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

SUV parts are fabricated in the stamping facility at the General Motors Assembly Plant on June 9, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at +0.34 in April, up slightly from a reading of +0.32 in March and higher than the +0.25 median forecast. The 3-month moving average, or the CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.46 in April from +0.23 in March.

Two (2) of the 4 broad categories of indicators increased from March to April, and 3 of the 4 categories made positive contributions to the index.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a 3-month moving average, gained significantly to +0.23 in April from +0.11 in March.

Fifty (50) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 35 made negative contributions. Thirty-five (35) indicators improved from March to April, while 50 indicators deteriorated. Of the 35 indicators that improved, 8 made negative contributions.

Employment and industrial production are the two that highlight the strength in this report.

Production-related indicators contributed +0.27 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.19 in March. Manufacturing industrial production increased by 0.5% in April after being unchanged in March. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 to the CFNAI in April, down slightly from +0.08 in March.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.04 in March. The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 3.9% in April from 4.1% in March, with black and Hispanic unemployment falling to all-time lows.

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PPD Business, the economy-reporting arm of People's Pundit Daily, is "making sense of current events." We are a no-holds barred, news reporting pundit of, by, and for the people.

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