The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slowed further for October, coming in at -0.71 and missing the consensus forecast. The index’s 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) fell to –0.31 in October from –0.21 in September.
Forecasts ranged from a low of -0.50 to a high of 0.05. The consensus forecast was -0.20.
Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in October.
Production-related indicators weighed heavily on the index. Together they contributed –0.55 to the CFNAI in October, down from –0.36 in September. That’s largely the result of industrial production falling 0.8% in October after declining by 0.3% in September.