Insured Unemployment Now the Highest on Record as Coronavirus Mitigation Crushes Historic Labor Market
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 6,606,000 for the week ending April 9, attributable to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). That’s a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised (+219,000) level at 6,867,000.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 3,000,000 to a high of 7,950,000. The consensus forecast was 5,000,000.
The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 54,750 from 2,612,000 to 2,666,750.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose 3.0% from 2.1% to 5.1% for the week ending March 28. The previous week was unrevised.
The insured unemployment rate fell to historic lows at 1.1% under the Trump Administration. It was last at that level on November 16, 2019, and hasn’t risen above 1.2% since April 28, 2018.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 7,455,000. That’s an increase of 4,396,000 from the previous week’s revised level and marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series.
The previous high was 6,635,000 in May of 2009. The previous week’s level was revised up 30,000 from 3,029,000 to 3,059,000.
The 4-week moving average rose to 3,500,000, a gain of 1,439,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. The previous week’s average was revised higher by 7,500 from 2,053,500 to 2,061,000.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending March 21.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 21 were in Rhode Island (6.7), Minnesota (5.6), Massachusetts (5.1), Connecticut (4.9), Washington (4.7), Vermont (4.5), Nevada (4.3), Montana (4.2), New Hampshire (4.2), and Ohio (4.0).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 28 were in California (+871,992), New York (+286,596), Michigan (+176,329), Florida (+154,171), Georgia (+121,680), Texas (+120,759), and New Jersey (+90,438), while the largest decreases were in Nevada (-20,356), Rhode Island (-8,047), and Minnesota (-6,678).