NMI Posts the Largest Single Month Gain in Survey History
Tempe, Arizona (PPD) — The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) rose to 57.1% in June, far stronger than economists expected. The reading indicates U.S. service sector activity returned to growth after two months of contraction.
Forecasts ranged from a low of 46.0 to a high of 52.7. The consensus forecast was 50.1. This is the largest single-month percentage-point gain since the NMI debut in 1997.
Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (PMI) also came in stronger than expected at 52.6% in June, up from 43.1% in May. This reading further indicated the overall economy in expansion for the second straight month after one month of contraction that ended 131 consecutive months of growth.
| Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index Jun | Series Index May | Percent Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend** (Months) | Series Index Jun | Series Index May | Percent Point Change |
| NMI®/ PMI® | 57.1 | 45.4 | +11.7 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 52.6 | 43.1 | +9.5 |
| Business Activity/ Production | 66.0 | 41.0 | +25.0 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 57.3 | 33.2 | +24.1 |
| New Orders | 61.6 | 41.9 | +19.7 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 56.4 | 31.8 | +24.6 |
| Employment | 43.1 | 31.8 | +11.3 | Contracting | Slower | 4 | 42.1 | 32.1 | +10.0 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.5 | 67.0 | -9.5 | Slowing | Slower | 13 | 56.9 | 68.0 | -11.1 |
| Inventories | 60.7 | 48.0 | +12.7 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 50.5 | 50.4 | +0.1 |
| Prices | 62.4 | 55.6 | +6.8 | Increasing | Faster | 3 | 51.3 | 40.8 | +10.5 |
| Backlog of Orders | 51.9 | 46.4 | +5.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 45.3 | 38.2 | +7.1 |
| New Export Orders | 58.9 | 41.5 | +17.4 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 47.6 | 39.5 | +8.1 |
| Imports | 52.9 | 43.7 | +9.2 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 48.8 | 41.3 | +7.5 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 55.9 | 55.1 | +0.8 | Too High | Faster | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 44.6 | 46.2 | -1.6 |
| Overall Economy | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | ||||||
| Non-Manufacturing Sector | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
**Number of months moving in current direction.
