Jobless Claims Slightly Miss Forecast, Trend Down for 12th Straight Week
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims came in more than expected at 1,427,000 for the week ending June 20, a decrease of 55,000. The previous week was upwardly revised (+2,000) to 1,482,000.
Claims soared due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), though have now declined for the thirteenth straight week. Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,000,000 to a high of 1,450,000. The consensus forecast was 1,400,000.
The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average (+500) at 1,621,250.
Roughly 50 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits as a result of the efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). However, millions now have returned to work given monthly employment situation statistics and lagging data.
Lagging Jobless Claims Data
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2% for the week ending June 20, unchanged given the previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.2 from 13.4 to 13.2%.
The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.
Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the previous week. The previous week’s level was revised down by 291,000 from 19,522,000 to 19,231,000.
The 4-week moving average was 19,854,000, down 494,500 from the previous week. The previous week’s average was downwardly revised by 72,750 from 20,421,250 to 20,348,500.