Donald Trump talks with supporters and signs autographs during a campaign stop at the Flynn Center of the Performing Arts in Burlington, Vt., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016. (Photo: AP)
Donald Trump has won the Nevada Republican Caucus in a landslide, dominating across every single demographic and breaking his “ceiling.” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio appears to be leading Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, though it’s too early to declare a winner.
Trump won more than 4 in 10 Hispanic voters in the Silver State 41% to 29% over Rubio despite his position on immigration, which most of “the geniuses” said would turn them off. Overall, Nevada caucus entrance polls found 2 in 10 cited immigration as their main issue of concern, higher than in previous states (it’s averaged 12%). The real estate mogul dominated this vote.
“This is a devastation blow to the Republican Establishment and the media, as Mr. Trump clearly broke what we have always called an artificial ceiling,” PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Trump got his people to the polls, they are exactly scores of angry white people and he won big. Period. There is no spinning this win.”
Trump is carrying Churchill County and Humboldt County with roughly 40% of the vote, while he’s walloping the field in Esmeralda County with more than 62% of the vote. Clark County, where more than 70 of the state’s vote comes in, he leads with more than 42% of the vote. If that margin holds or grows, it is statistically impossible not for Trump to break through the ceiling the media has lamented over for weeks.
The Donald won voters statewide who said they were very conservative (38% to 32% for Cruz), somewhat conservatives (47% to 29% for Rubio), moderates (56% to 26% for Rubio), men (44%) and women (45%) and every age group.
“The city filled with bartenders and maids working for casinos just chose to vote for the casino owner instead of the son of a bartender,” Baris said, referring to Rubio. “We are already starting to hear the spin from the usual suspects, but Rubio’s window is rapidly closing if it hasn’t closed already.”
Much has been made about Trump’s ability to win outside of working-class, lower-educated voters. However, as we’ve explain repeatedly, that was never a real factor. Trump won post-graduate degree voters with 35% to 30% for Rubio and overall college degree voters 40% to 31%.
The Donald once again beat Cruz on his own turf, casting further doubt on the Texas senator’s path to victory moving forward. White evangelicals backed Trump (41%) over Cruz (27%), while evangelicals overall gave the winner a bigger 41% to 27% margin.
