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Sunday, July 21, 2019
HomeOpinionBernie Sanders Nomination Would Be a Disaster for the GOP

Bernie Sanders Nomination Would Be a Disaster for the GOP

Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing 'em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.
Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing 'em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.
Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., cheer at a campaign rally in Portland, Maine. Sanders is packing ’em in: 10,000 people in Madison, Wis.; more than 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa; another 7,500 in Portland, Maine.

Senator Bernie Sanders, D-(I)-Vt., becoming the Democratic Party nominee for president would indeed be a disaster for the GOP — in 2024.

In 2024, Republicans will likely be facing a seemingly-ironclad rule that has held since 1952, one that holds a two-term administration of either party has little chance a successor can be victorious. 

On the other hand, most first-term presidents or their successors in office — e.g. Kennedy/Johnson and Harding/Coolidge — get re-elected.

In the twelve presidential administrations since 1920, only three presidents, — Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — were not re-elected. Not surprisingly, all three were done in by poor to disastrous economies.

The Democratic administrations of Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Harry S. Truman ran to five victories in a row.

With those historical precedents in mind, the odds are that President Donald Trump will get the nod from voters for a second term if the economy continues to improve.

If the unprecedented benefits of low employment for blacks — with whom Senator Sanders did poorly — and Hispanics continue their current pace, then President Trump could be positioned for a landslide win.

In such circumstances, the opposing party tends to give vent to its most radical or out-of-touch elements. The Republican Party nominated Barry Goldwater, and the Democratic Party nominated George McGovern and Walter Mondale. They each suffered a massive Electoral College rejection.

Mr. Mondale suffered the worst defeat, carrying only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia (DC). Worth noting, Mr. Mondale nearly lost Minnesota, besting Ronald Reagan 49.72% to 49.54%, or just 1,036,364 votes to 1,032,603 votes.

Mr. Sanders, with his army of “Bernie Bros.,” ticks every box in the crusade type candidacy.

But it is challenging to see the American electorate at a time of full or near-full employment electing what would be perceived as a tax-raising socialist, and conveyor of who knows what new list of politically correct social restructuring.

The prospect of a Sanders candidacy is very real. He has not yet made a move in that direction, but to discount such a possibility would be foolish. Nathan Robinson at the leftwing “The Guardian” hails Senator Sanders as “the most progressive choice for president.”

Notably, according to the Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky, a high-profile Sanders partisan David Sirota attacked Beto O’Rourke, a younger potential rival for the progressive left’s hearts. Tomasky, a Hillary supporter, has in turn attacked Mr. Sanders. David Brook at NBC’s “Think” goes further and attacks Mr. Sanders’ supporters as potential “poisoners.”

Game on.

More importantly, Mr. Sanders leads by a large margin in polls surveying only progressive candidates. He consistently polls in second place behind former Vice President Joe Biden in broader polls of prospective Democratic nominees.

He has a large following of grassroots supporters to reignite. The second time around as a known factor to the left would make that task more simple, as would the raising of substantial funds.

While a Sanders candidacy would be welcomed by Republicans, the historical reality indicates this would bode poorly for the GOP in 2024. That is particularly noteworthy if a more traditional Democratic candidate loses to President Trump.

If Senator Sanders were to run in 2020 and lose, then the natural expected result would be the humbling of the more radical elements. The Democratic Party would likely turn to a centrist candidate, which would make the job of electing a successor to President Trump very difficult considering the “third-term” hoodoo. 

Conversely, if Mr. Sanders were again denied the nomination after a vigorous campaign — with mass rallies attended by hordes of youthful leftists and Hollywood supporters — the pressure for a similar candidate in 2024 would be unstoppable.

President George H.W. Bush broke the third term jinx by having the good fortune to run against an utterly hopeless incompetent in former Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis, who blew an 18-point lead.

Whomever the GOP’s successor to President Trump, he or she can only hope that Senator Sanders is denied the 2020 nomination, and a similar radical is the Democrats’ choice in 2024.

Written by
Contributing Columnist

M. Joseph Sheppard is an author and columnist who writes on politics and economics. Called "A Leading Pundit" by Newsmax, his articles have appeared and been cited on American Thinker, The Federalist, Time Out U.K. and numerous other venues.

Latest comments

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    @SHEPMJS However, none of those people that lost (after their party had been in control for 2 terms) were… https://t.co/727IDH7eDf

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      Didn’t the Democrat party make it so only a Democrat could run on the party ticket? So that Bernie never has a chance.

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    @Peoples_Pundit @SHEPMJS Would it? Biden is the only one ahead of Trump in the early polls. It seems li… https://t.co/ZTgab4vO66

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    @Peoples_Pundit @SHEPMJS Oxymoron Bernie thinks his Socialist Presidency would elevate him to Billionaire status.

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    @SHEPMJS .I disagree. Sanders will find a very different reception – much has changed since he last ran.

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    @SHEPMJS And Bernie would be in his 80’s LOL 😎

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    Hard to predict but unlikely Dems will nominate someone over 70. The contrast of a younger candidate w… https://t.co/QO5c7mr23x

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    Last Century thinking.

    Bill Clinton did not win, the vote was split. Except for that fact, there would have been 4 (probably 5) consecutive Republican Administrations.

    Which further means that the only Democrat who has won a Presidential Election since the 1970s is the black guy. This was accomplished because of record levels of Black turnout that swung the Key states (Pa. Oh. NC. Fl, Mi) democrat.

    There is no reason to fear a white or Jewish candidate, simply because the Black vote in the key states will not be high enough. As whites and Jews continue to become a less significant minority in the Democrat coalition, their viability at the National Level will continue to fall, their hold over the power structure of the DNC will continue to erode, and it is more and more likely that the Democrats will be forced to run Black Presidential candidates in hopes of winning the swing states.

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    I hope Bernie runs. I hope Biden, Kerry, Clinton, and every other prominent Democrat Governor and Senator and Congressional leader runs. I hope all the loopy Progressives run. I hope they all raise a ton of money, force each other to the ultra-left, savage one another, produce a divided convention that in a bitter struggle elects the most ultra left of all , , , , ,and that the ensuing election illustrates that while ultra lefts have captured the media, academia and the political leadership of the Democrat party, the ultra lefts are a tiny fraction of the population – well <10%, and their candidates lose in 48 to 50 states.

    That would have two consequences – both good for America –
    1. Trump would be re-elected, the Republicans would romp in the Senatorial and Congressional elections and in the state elections and America would have four years to finish putting Constitutionalists in the federal judiciary including 2-3 more Supreme Court justices looking at the actuarial, Trump would be able to finish the trade negotiations, deregulation, tax reform and produce a lasting strong economy, Trump would be able to finish extracting us from endless, draining small wars that have resulted in the decline of our core ability to defend ourselves from China + Russia and rebuild our military including dominance in Space, and the states could take on the task of deconstructing the leftist stranglehold on academia.
    2. Once the hollow nature of the Progressives is revealed in a decisive, electoral destruction, the Democrats might abandon the Progressives and focus on being a pro-American, centrist party.

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    The democrats will lose…just a bunch of commies with nothing to offer.

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    This reads like the Old Farmer’s Almanac. For this to be true millions of former Trump voters would have to vote for Bernie Sanders. (Who would be, what? 100 years old by then?)

    ZERO chance that would happen. Bernie for President is the GOP dream. Not one Trump voter would EVER vote for Sanders. Ever.

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    racist pig

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    I don’t think it matters much who they would nominate. The Dems have no viable candidates.

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