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Monday, May 20, 2019
HomePollsTrump Still Leads Clinton in Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

Trump Still Leads Clinton in Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results for July 29, 2016.

U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results for July 29, 2016.

Donald Trump holds a roughly 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton two days after the Democratic National Convention. The People’s Pundit Daily Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll finds Mr. Trump at 47.6% to 42.1% for Mrs. Clinton, a lead that is largely fueled by a greater consolidation of the Republican base and a lead among independent voters.

Perhaps the biggest story regarding the post convention polling data is the shift toward Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and the collapse of Libertarian Party candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

On July 19, the first day of the Republican convention, Gov. Johnson enjoyed roughly 9% support in the 4-way matchup, and Dr. Stein was polling at an usually high 3% (her support has ranged from 1% to 3%). Now, no doubt a result of the embarrassing WikiLeak release of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee, Dr. Stein has increased to her highest level of support to date (4.3%).

Meanwhile, the decline of Mrs. Clinton’s support began even before the conventions began, with voters turning markedly more negative in their views toward the former secretary of state in light of the statements made by FBI Director James Comey. She has struggled to recover ever since and would likely be far higher if a significant number of her own party wasn’t opting for Dr. Stein, Gov. Johnson and even Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump is drawing more Democrats (17%) than Mrs. Clinton is drawing from Republicans (9%).

Also worth noting, Mr. Trump was fairly successful at rehabilitating his image among a large number of voters who previously held a less favorable view of him, while views of Mrs. Clinton changed almost immeasurably after the convention.

One of the most praised speeches at the DNC was given by President Barack Obama, who has enjoyed historically high approval ratings in his final year. This week, the numbers got slightly negative with 46% approving and 48% disapproving. As we’ve repeatedly found, the intensity as measured by the percentage of those who say they disapprove or approve “a great deal,” is disproportionately against the president.

Only 16.7% say they approve of the president “a great deal,” while 38.2% say they disapprove with the same intensity.

Much has been made about the contrasting views of the state of the union and level of trust in government coming out of the two parties’ conventions. Overall, most Americans believe that Mr. Trump is telling the truth about corruption and the government being broken, though his supporters are more likely to hold more negative views than Mrs. Clinton’s voters.

When asked, “How much does the national government care about what people like you think?” 47.6% say “Once in a while” and 38.1% say “Never.” Still, even half of Mrs. Clinton’s voters agree with one of those assessments, while the other half says “Most of the time” (20%) or “About half the time” (30%).

When asked, “How often does the federal government do what most Americans want it to do?” 34.8% of Trump voters say “Never” and 47.8% say “Once in a while.” That compares to only 8.3% of Clinton voters who say “Never,” though a significant number (41.7%) say “Once in a while.”

The Electorate

Gauging the likelihood of voting and past voting behavior, we have estimated the current electorate to be 46.15% men and 53.85% women, which one would expect to bode well for Mrs. Clinton. However, Rust Belt and New England suburban women have begun to warm up to Mr. Trump, despite what I personally believed to be a decent job by Democrats at their convention to reach out to them.

In terms of enthusiasm, Trump voters are measurably more excited heading into November than Clinton voters. Roughly 59% of Trump voters say they are “extremely enthusiastic” and 27% say they are “very enthusiastic,” juxtaposed to just 50% and 20%, respectively, saying the same about the Democratic nominee. Voters 18 to 29 years old are the least enthusiastic about the November election, while

The decrease in Mr. Trump’s margin is also somewhat reflective of the increased number of respondents who identify as Democrats. More voters than ever before self-identify as independent (32.8%), while 29.9% identify as Democrat and 27.9% as Republican.

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

Latest comments

  • Avatar

    I have such disgust for politics right now. I have never seen such open bias amongst the main stream media in my life. The print and televised media are not even attempting to hide their favoring of Ms. Clinton. Their slanted reporting leads me to wonder if they know how they have betrayed their oaths to remain OBJECTIVE, to be real reporters when covering the news, regardless of their own political leanings. The DNC and Democratic party is so corrupted as to have lost their way. They rig their own election process, gag their own party members, use vile, racist, and homophobic language in email communications, and work in conjunction with members of the media to plot strategy and report slanted information, as if factual. Why were the constant demonstrations at the Democratic convention never referenced, or even commented on, or shown on TV.

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      Spot ON!

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      Completely agree! I’m an active duty military officer, and I’m supposed to be apolitical, but I can’t take this level of complete and utter bias from our media anymore. It’s disgusting. The more they do it, the more I grow to hate Hillary. And I know I’m not the only one who feels this way. I haven’t seen a single Hillary Clinton sign in any yards yet (since everything kicked off in 2015). I see Trump signs everywhere, and sanders signs sporadic. I’ve driven all over the country lately, and I still haven’t seen Hillary sign. She’s a complete creation of the media.

      They take everything Donald says out of context, while giving a complete pass to Hillary and democrats.

      Everyone outside of DC, NYC, and Hollywood who watched the DNC convention didn’t see unity or patriotism. We saw pandering, fake patriotism, BS, lies, and imagination (not reality).

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      All polls are lying about the point spread. In reality Trump is about 20 points ahead of Clinton and it scares the hell out of every media outlet and politician. Trump will win this in a landslide unless Clinton Riggs the General.

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      I fully agree with this. CNN is the worst of the offenders. These are not reporters but brain-washers.

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    Don’t forget about the activist Federal judges being bought in swing states to change the voter ID laws. They are already rigging the election for Clinton…You need a picture ID for EVERYTHING but not for voting?

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      The DNC demanded photo ID at their convention. Hypocrites much?

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    I find it interesting you say Trump is leading considering that two polls came out today and both have Clinton in the lead..one by about 6 points and one by over 10.

    I was thinking of subscribing to your newsletter until I read on and discovered..in my opinion..you seem mighty “Trump friendly” which is odd considering I thought you were more independent. Google “poll” and you will see that some other pollsters disagree about who is in the lead. Unless you are going to say they are all secretly for Hillary and you are the only fair website around.

    Now maybe things will change..this election will be quite close. But right now it is Hillary in the lead.

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      Look at the USC/LA Times tracking poll. Almost identical results: Trump 47%, Clinton 42%

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      Fair question, but one that should also be posed to the Washington Post, Politico and NBC News, who also published widely inaccurate polls. I mention those names because they are the ones in the leaked DNC emails by WikiLeaks colluding with a major political party, yet their polls are never questioned.

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      I’m an Independent, have NEVER VOTED REPUBLICAN, voted for Perot (TWICE) and Kerry Once is 2004 (when we really had a Hitler like person in the oval office)

      I cannot believe the amount of bias by the news media pushing this Hillary Clinton presidency… And BTW: if you somehow forgot, Clinton’s Daughter, Chelsea works for MSNBC, but only part time, but surprisingly GOOD pay for a part-time gig, Her FIRST job after graduating, in Journalism (NOT Chemical Engineering, or PHD in Computer Science) she makes 500K…. That’s surprisingly good pay for your first job, with a liberal arts degree…

      And if you google Trump in the news section, you won’t just find out what he said, but the articles will give you the media’s opinion in the Title… Unbelievable… I understand Fox news is the side of the coin, But come on now, this is ridiculous… These are the same media outlets that pushed George Dubya’s illegal war… It’s ALL about money… the actual story doesn’t matter, as long as they can get Hillary into the White House..

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        and Chelsea lives in a 10 million dollar apartment

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      Dove, have a look at the sample of those polls that show Clinton ahead by 5-10 points. Check the RCP website. Everything is there. 700-800 people? In a country where about 150 million will vote? And of such diverse population groups? And you’ll notice that in the poll where she’s supposing to be leading by 6%, it’s only if the other candidates are not included. The same people, Reuters/Ipsos, published another poll with the almost the exact same sample, where all four candidates are included and guess what? Trump and Clinton are tied at 37%. Given the fact that Trump almost always does better than the polls indicate, (shy conservative factor), it’s safe to say that he’s in the lead.

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      Which polls show Shillary Winning?

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    This poll is great news and the numbers tell a great story.

    Donald John Trump for President of the United States of America 2016
    Make America Great Again

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      who is John? Trump’s secret boyfriend?

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        “John” is Donald J. Trump’s middle name, what an inane question.

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          Middle name is Joseph not John.

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    Conservative money (e.g. Super PACs) and many Republican leaders correctly see Trump not only as an existential threat not only to the reputation of the Republican party and conservativism but to America itself.

    Trump would not only be the worst president in American history but the most dangerous. Even Nixon with his all usurpation of power was compelled there more by his inner demons and paranoia not a boorish disregard for American ideals and simple fascist vanity. Trump will be the closest we’ll come to an American Mussolini (who he’s naturally praised) assuming we dodge the bullet. Others would say Hitler, but Trump is too self-aware and too entertained by his own contemptuous excesses to be Hitler.

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      Simply ridiculous.

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    I will never get over the embarrassment of belonging to the same species as Hillary Clinton.

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    Hillary Clinton, and her disbarred, grand jury perjuring, sex assaulting, money laundering, drug dealing, peddler of U.S. resources, and military and industrial secrets for their own profit, serial lying, witness tampering, justice obstructing, evidence tampering, thieving, corrupt husband are both serial psychopathic liars, and career criminals, and they both belong in the jail house, not the White House. Vote for TRUMP and Make America Great again!

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    My god, there are a lot of tin foil hatted people here. Paranoia and conspiracy theories abound. Not surprising since Trump has made a campaign out of the same thing. This is the one, and I do mean “One”, place where I have seen these numbers. Trump never believes he doesn’t win anything and has made his supporters believe he is winning because he/they can’t accept anything else. There were times when McCain and Romney were ahead too out of the conventions and they got massacred in the election. The same thing will happen here. When it comes down to the wire, sane, intelligent people will vote Clinton because too much will be at stake (and too much going backwards) with Trump. He has been an embarrassment to the country and made our elections a complete joke. People are laughing at us. Most major countries do not like or want Trump. A Trump presidency will be worse than Bush.

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      Too ridiculous. She’s like Jezebe in the Bible. Not Good. Look it up.

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