Consumer Sentiment Bounces Back in November, But Drowned Out by Disappointing Data

A closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 93.1 in November from a final reading in October of 90. Economists anticipated a smaller rise to 91.5 for the month.

“Confidence rose in early November mainly due to a stronger outlook for the domestic economy. Overall, the most recent confidence reading was equal to the average during the first ten months of 2015, and higher than any year since 2004,” said Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin. “Two trends dominated the early November data: consumers anticipated somewhat larger income increases during the year ahead as well as expected a somewhat lower inflation rate.”

However, the Commerce Department reported on Friday that US retail sales rose less than expected in October and automobile purchases unexpectedly decline, indicating lower consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

“This meant that consumers held the most favorable inflation-adjusted income expectations since 2007. Moreover, the somewhat larger gains were anticipated by lower income households,” Curtin added. “Buying plans for large discretionary purchases improved, especially for vehicles. Overall, the data indicate an expected rate of growth in personal consumption expenditures of 2.9% in 2016.”