(A shopper leaves the Gap with a bag in New York City. (Photo: REUTERS)
The Survey of Consumers, a consumer sentiment index conducted by the University of Michigan, fell to 87.2 from 91.2 in September, missing expectations. The index found consumer sentiment fell by the same margin as the previous month and is now at its lowest level since October 2014.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a reading of 88.5.
“The October decline was due to less favorable prospects for the national economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn sometime in the next five years for the first time since October 2014,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist. “Nonetheless, the October rise may simply reflect a temporary bout of uncertainty caused by the election.”
However, he said the “probability of a downturn during the next five years is far from zero,” adding along with “small increases in interest rates, consumers also anticipate a mild slowdown in job creation that is likely to prevent any further declines in the national unemployment rate.”
Final Consumer Sentiment Results for October 2016
| Oct | Sep | Oct | M-M | Y-Y | |
| 2016 | 2016 | 2015 | Change | Change | |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment | 87.2 | 91.2 | 90.0 | -4.4% | -3.1% |
| Current Economic Conditions | 103.2 | 104.2 | 102.3 | -1.0% | +0.9% |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 76.8 | 82.7 | 82.1 | -7.1% | -6.5% |
