U.S. Economy Adds 196K Jobs, Wage Growth Above 3% for Eight Straight Month

The U.S. economy created 196,000 jobs in March, beating forecasts, unemployment held steady and wages grew above 3% for the eight consecutive month.

The consensus forecast was looking for 170,000, ranging from a low of 145,000 to a high of 218,000.

“While there was understandably some nervousness following the significant ‘miss’ last month, and the shortfall from the ADP private sector report on Wednesday, markets will take this as a very reassuring report,” Tim Anderson, market analyst at TJM Investments said.

	Prior	Revised	Consensus	Range	Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M	20,000	33,000	170,000	145,000 – 218,000	196,000
Unemployment Rate	3.8%		3.8%	3.8% – 3.9%	3.8%
Private Payrolls – M/M	25,000	28,000	168,000	140,000 – 173,000	182,000
Manufacturing Payrolls – M/M	4,000	1,000	10,000	5,000 – 12,000	-6,000
Participation Rate	63.2%%				63.0
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M	0.4%		0.2%	0.0% – 0.4%	0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings – Y/Y	3.4%		3.4%	3.1% – 3.9%	3.2%
Av Workweek – All	34.4		34.5	34.4 – 34.5	34.5

The ADP National Employment Report showed weakness in the goods-producing sector for the month.

Construction employment in the government jobs report this month rose 16,000) in March and has increased by 246,000 over the past 12 months.

The labor force participation rate ticked down only slightly to 63.0%, but has largely held the gains at 63 over the past 12 months. The employment-population ratio was 60.6% and has been either 60.6% or 60.7% since October 2018.

The consensus forecast for wages was 3.4%, ranging from a low of 3.1% to a high of 3.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents to $27.70 after a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%.

It’s the eight straight month wages (AEHs) have been above 3% over the 12-month period. Even more positive in this report, wages have room to continue to grow.

“We continue to see growth in Average Hourly Earnings, and the participation rate is holding the gains of the last 6 to 8 months at 63.0%,” Mr. Anderson added. “While there were modest job losses in retail, -12,000, and manufacturing, -6000, the performance of retail stocks year-to-date is telling us that sector is much healthier than it has been in the last 2 years.”

“Likewise, the resurgence of the U.S. manufacturing sector over the last 18 months is unlikely to reverse, over a marginal decline from one report.”