Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Picks Up in May

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Indicator	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus Forecast	Forecast Range	Result
CFNAI	-0.45	-0.48	-0.18	-0.60 to -0.15	-0.05
CFNAI 3-Month Avg.	-0.22	-0.37			-0.17

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.05 in May from –0.48 in April, a forecast beat fueled by production-related indicators. The CFNAI-MA3, the 3-month moving average, rose to –0.17 from –0.37.

The readings point to a pickup in economic growth in May. While three of the index’s four broad categories of indicators increased from April, just one made a positive contribution to the index in May.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, also a 3-month moving average, gained to –0.12 from –0.26. Thirty-nine (39) of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 46 made negative contributions. Forty-nine (49) indicators improved, while 36 indicators worsened.

Among the indicators that improved for the month, 20 made negative contributions.

How to Read the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

A zero value should indicate the U.S. economy is expanding at its historical rate of growth, or average). Negative values should indicate below-average growth in standard deviation units, while positive values indicate above-average growth.