June Jobs Report Smashes Expectations, See Positive Revisions for May
Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the U.S. economy added 4.8 million jobs in June, the largest gain ever recorded and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. The historic gain in jobs and decrease in the rate come after a historic gain in May and historic declines due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in April.
The forecasts for total nonfarm payrolls ranged from a low of -11,000,000 to a high of -3,500,000. The consensus was -7,725,000. The forecast for the unemployment rate ranged from a low of 10.1% to a high of 14.8%. The consensus forecast was 12.4%.
The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point in June to 61.5%, following a 0.6 percentage point gain in May. The forecast for the labor force participation rate ranged from a low of 60.7% to a high of 61.2%. The consensus forecast was 61.1%. The less cited but equally important employment-population ratio gained 6.5 percentage points to 54.6%.
Construction employment increased 158,000 in June after recovering nearly half of its losses in April (-995,000) the month prior, rising 464,000 jobs in May. Much of the gain occurred in specialty trade contractors (+135,000), with gains roughly evenly split between the residential and nonresidential. Job gains also occurred in construction of buildings (+32,000), largely in residential building.
Manufacturing employment rose by 356,000, driven largely by the durable goods component, with motor vehicles and parts (+196,000). In April, manufacturing employment fell by 1.3 million, with about two-thirds of the loss occurring in the durable goods component.
The forecast for manufacturing employment ranged from a low of -440,000 to a high of 600,000. The consensus forecast was only 180,000.
The decline in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million. The increase for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined was 90,000 higher than previously reported.