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Sunday, December 9, 2018
HomeNewsElectionsClinton’s Conundrum: Poll Data Show Many Sanders Voters Prefer Jill Stein

Clinton’s Conundrum: Poll Data Show Many Sanders Voters Prefer Jill Stein

Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders protest against Hillary Clinton and the DNC outside the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. (Photo: Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr/Creative Commons)
Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders protest against Hillary Clinton and the DNC outside the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. (Photo: Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr/Creative Commons)

Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders protest against Hillary Clinton and the DNC outside the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. (Photo: Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr/Creative Commons)

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results show a small but clear movement to Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein post convention. The survey, which was used to make the PPD Election Projection Model the most accurate on the Internet in 2014, began tracking on July 3 and was first released for public consumption on Saturday.

As expected, we were bombarded by readers on both sides either agreeing with or disputing the results. Other surveys either mirror the U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll, come very close or don’t at all resemble our results. Regarding the surveys that don’t at all resemble our results, we have a very simple response.

We’re right, They’re wrong. Period. That was the case in 2014 and it’s the case now. Donald Trump still maintains a roughly 4-point lead over Hillary Clinton, though that’s down several points from his post convention bounce. Mrs. Clinton has enjoyed a small bounce after she accepted the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

However, there are a significant number of voters who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primary who now say they will either vote for Dr. Stein, Mr. Trump, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson or not at all–in that order.

Below is an interactive chart based on more than 400 responses conducted last night (7/30/2016) via our Internet panel and live interviews. It provides cross tab data to determine the presidential preference for primary voters based on the candidate they voted for in the primaries. While these results are particularly strong for Dr. Stein–there were also an unusually high number of 18 to 29 year-old samples–the total results include the 7-day rolling average, are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and show Mr. Trump ahead 46.8% to 42.2%.

The sub-sample shown in the chart paints pretty much the same picture as the overall result. The polling data indicate Mr. Trump did a better job winning over those Republicans who did not vote for him in the Republican presidential primary (88%), as well as maintain those who did (97.8%). Mrs. Clinton is maintaining 94.4% of Democratic voters who cast their primary ballot for her, but less than half (47.7%) of those who voted for Sen. Sanders say they are certain they will be on board.

Now to Dr. Stein’s bump. Again, we do not believe Mrs. Clinton will only end up with half of Sen. Sanders’ voters. Last night was an unusual response. But we are saying many, many voters are very, very angry.

Nearly 16% of Sanders supporters say they will vote for Mr. Trump, but more than a quarter are at least giving Dr. Stein a serious look. Sanders’ voters also have a largely favorable view of Dr. Stein (56%), compared to only 33% who say the same for Mrs. Clinton. Not surprisingly, these voters are markedly more likely to say they don’t believe the federal government acts in the interest of the people. Another 5.6% of her support comes from the small pool of voters who supported another candidate in the Democratic presidential primary.

Whether Dr. Stein can maintain that level of support is uncertain and worth debating as we collect and digest more polling data in the upcoming days and weeks. But what isn’t up for debate is the fact that a significant number of Sen. Sanders’ voters have extremely negative views of Mrs. Clinton and are not quite ready to just suck it up and move on.

Worth noting, we did not see this level of discontentment before the anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks released some 20,000 embarrassing emails that revealed the DNC was actively working against the socialist senator from Vermont to coronate Mrs. Clinton. Despite the fawning media coverage, Mrs. Clinton still has much work to do ahead of November. The good news for the former secretary of state and her supporters is that we anticipate the anger to subside, at least somewhat. When it does, it will no doubt become much closer, though Mr. Trump was trending higher even before the conventions.

Still, the numbers are readily available to carry her to victory in November, if she can bring everyone home.

[brid video=”56811″ player=”2077″ title=”Jill Stein Crashes The DNC”]
Written by
Editor

Richard D. Baris is the Director of the PPD Election Projection Model and of the Big Data Poll, both of which conducted the most accurate statewide forecasting in 2016. He is also the author of a thesis on American political philosophy, Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract.

Latest comments

  • Gotta love when articles take a clearly optimistic view of a situation to avoid pissing off a critical readerbase.

    • Next step for the DNC: Jiggle the polls so that Jill Stein does not get invited to the debates.

  • This is the most disgusting sack of horseshit i’ve ever read. There’s no way this many yankees are voting for Clinton.

    • Agreed. Clinton’s camp will continue lying to the public by overbloating her numbers, BUT the public does talk to each other through face to face contact and social media. Our personal experiences with our polictical process, friends, loved ones, co-workers, neighbors, and acquaintences PROVE that Hellary campaign numbers are ALL smoke and mirrors!!!

  • Obviously a CTR poll.

  • No asked me, but if they had I would have told them “I’m voting for Jill Stein”. I’m new to Twitter, but I’ve been reading the #DemExit postings for the past hour, and they are non-stop. A new post every few seconds. I think there are way more Jill Stein supporters then the media is reporting.

  • Where are these polls? Why can’t I participate in one? I’m a voter. Give us a link to them so we can share and get feedback.

  • Never ever will I vote for Clinton, the criminal. Don’t count me among those whose anger will subside.

    • Keep speaking your message to friends! I’m in agreement with you.

  • I will NEVER vote for Hillary!!!

    Open your poll and place it where EVERYONE can be polled and you’ll get the TRUTH that the MASSES ARE FLEEING FROM that lying, bought-and-payed-for, warmongering, thieving, hypocritical, criminal.

    She STOLE THE NOMINATION!!!

    We DON’T WANT HER, NEVER DID and NEVER WILL. The OLY WAY she could win the election is by MORE ELECTION FRAUD!!!

    • I’m with you from California area. Keep on spreading the truth.

  • I’m an independent who has voted for “democrats” lifelong until I saw her cheat her way through this election. I’m not coming “home”to the “democrats” ever. I’m not even visiting them anymore.

  • the odd couple
    Bernie and Hillary
    only they have in common
    they wear the same shirt.
    I am a supporter of the Green Party hopeful

  • I am a 58year old lifrtime Democrat. I watched Hillary cheat her way to a nomination. She is a lying money grubbing war monger. I will proudly vote for Jill.

  • #DemExit. #NeverHillary
    She told the progressives in her party to go pound sand–first cheating–when she probably would not have had to, then picking another neo-con as her VP choice–a kick in the teeth to true progressives. Let her win the general the way she won the primary.

  • I cannot swallow HRC for President. By voting for the lesser of 2 evils we still will have evil. I’m going for the greater good Jill Stein. Let Mrs. Clinton steal the general election as well. Such a disgusting display for the world to see. Democracy is dead.

  • If Trump wins in November as votes are siphoned off to Jill Stein, it is the fault of the Democrat party. They rigged the campaign, promoting their weakest, most corrupt and unpopular candidate. Now they have to accept their illicit actions could lose them the election. And blackmailing Bernie supporters to now support Hillary using fear tactics is not an answer.

    The DNC knew they could easily defeat Trump by supporting Bernie. Countless polls confirmed this. I now think a Trump Presidency could be the wake up call and the event Bernie actually need to move forward at pace. A lost in November means he could easily put the Hillary gang away and place his revolution into high gear, with progressive candidates emerging across the country in state elections. Third parties like the greens will get more exposure, which is a good thing. We’ll have a democracy again. The bitter pill is to suffer 4 years of Trump. http://bit.ly/sanders-clinton-trump-race
    http://bit.ly/democracy-lost-2016

  • #JillNotHill Bernie supporter over the age of 50 who will never, ever vote for Hillary Clinton.

  • The chicken has come home to roost and to lay corporate eggs. The eggs are going to be very expensive, only billionaires can afford to buy them.

  • These polling numbers will only improve as more Berners learn about Jill Stein and the Green Party … https://s31.postimg.org/phan8h6sb/Bernie_Sanders_supporters_Guardian_poll.jpg

  • The polls are wrong! The New York Times did a write up why! Doctor Jill Stein is going to win!
    I am 50, live in southern Indiana and would love for our world to stay Green and you should too!
    Now, were do me and my hundreds of thousands facebook Stein/Bernie friends go to be in a poll, because none of us have???