ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models For September 5 At 7:00AM EST
2:00 PM EDT UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds increased to 110 mph (175 km/h).
It is located about 60 miles (95 km) South of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, moving North-Northeast or 25 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h). In relation to North Carolina, Dorian is about 115 miles (185 km) South-Southwest of Wilmington.
ORIGINAL STORY: On Thursday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF models forecast a reorganized Hurricane Dorian to move North before accelerating North-Northeastward.
The above forecasts — generated via Tropical Tidbits — include the ECMWF (Euro) and GF over the next 120-hour period. The HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) covers a 36-hour period.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) track forecast continues to show the storm close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.
The NHC said the center should move to the Southeast of extreme Southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.
Hurricane Dorian reorganized and was upgraded to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds increased to 115 mph (185 km/h).
Minimum central pressure has fallen to 957 mb (28.26 inches) after rising to 963 mb (28.44 inches) on Wednesday. That was up from a low of 911 mb and 922 mb (27.23 inches) on Sunday, 916 mb (27.05 inches) on Monday and 950 mb (28.05) on Tuesday.
As of 5:00 AM EDT, the storm was located roughly 80 miles (130 km) South-Southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
The Northwestern part of the eye wall is forecast to hit land near Charleston and/or North. Reconnaissance missions Wednesday night showed wind speeds just over 100 mph in that portion of the eye wall.
The storm is moving North at 8 mph (13 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday.
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.
The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.
Expected Weather Conditions
Below are expected weather conditions via the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Rainfall
- Coastal Carolinas: 6 to 12 inches of rain, isolated 15 inches
- Far Southeast Virginia: 3 to 8 inches
- Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches
- Extreme Southeastern New England: 2 to 4 inches
Flooding
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
Surf
Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tornadoes
A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight.
