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Saturday, October 19, 2019
HomePolicyMedicaid Enrollment Will Tank States Who Took Fed Money, Nearly 1/5 Nationwide Receive Benefits

Medicaid Enrollment Will Tank States Who Took Fed Money, Nearly 1/5 Nationwide Receive Benefits

medicaid enrollment

Nearly one-fifth of all Americans — 61 million nationwide — are on Medicaid, the already-financially insolvent government-run health care program. States who participated in the Medicaid expansion program under ObamaCare, will be in serious financial trouble after the initial three years are up, when Uncle Sam no longer bares any of the financial burden.

A new report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services found states who opted out of the Medicaid expansion see their states’ Medicaid enrollment rolls expanding their rolls at only a fraction of the rate as those who opted in, with some states even reporting a net decrease relative to the prior year baseline.

In total, for the 46 states (including the District of Columbia) who reported both February 2014 enrollment data and data from July — September of 2013, which is the pre-open enrollment baseline period, roughly 61.0 million individuals (nearly one-fifth of the total 312 million) were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in February, a gain of around 3 million additional individuals and a 5.2 percent increase over the average monthly enrollment for July — September of 2013.

In states who opted for the Medicaid expansion and whose expansions were in effect in February 2014, Medicaid enrollment rose by a whopping 8.3 percent compared to the July — September 2013 baseline period, while states that are not expanding Medicaid reported just a 1.6 percent increase over the same period.

Even before the passage of ObamaCare, the Medicaid actuaries warned of the program’s insolvency. According to a document obtained by People’s Pundit Daily in Nov. from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, new ObamaCare costs are projected to push total health expenditures to over $5 trillion a year by 2022.

“In 2014, national health spending is projected to rise to 7.4 percent, or 2.1 percentage- points faster than in the absence of reform [or, passing ObamaCare], as the major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are expected to result in 22 million fewer uninsured people (compared to estimates that exclude the law’s impacts). Increases in Medicaid spending growth of 18.0 percent and private health insurance growth of 7.9 percent both contribute to this overall acceleration in national health spending in 2014.”

However, because of the bailout provision included in the ACA, considering the risk pool is now far more slanted than previously expected, these numbers are actually understating the true cost. Even the new CMS report admits these new figures will under-project costs if used to score.

“Note that the February 2014 enrollment numbers understate total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment because not all states are reporting, the data are preliminary, and the data do not include most individuals who will later be found eligible for Medicaid or CHIP effective in February through retroactive coverage,” the report reads.

And that doesn’t even include missed data from reporting delays. Below are the tables for states expanding Medicaid and states not expanding Medicaid, which clearly show some states who were already in financial dire straits expanding at an unsustainable rate.

I wonder what kind of care Medicaid will provide when cost controls inevitably are implemented? Maybe we could ask Paul Krugman — Mr. “Yes, death panels are built into the system” — for an answer?

States Expanding Medicaid

Marketplace Type

Enrollment

Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, January 2014 (updated) (IX)

Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, February 2014 (preliminary) (X)

Pre-ACA Monthly Average Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment (July-Sept 2013) (XI)

% Change From Pre-ACA to February 2014 (XII)

Arizona

1,207,102 1,234,401 1,201,770 2. 7%

Arkansas

751,576 763,356

680,920 12. 1%

California

9,816,000 9,999,000 9,157,000 9. 2%

Colorado

946,477 962,210 783,420

22. 8%

Connecticut

—-

Delaware

227,971 230,165 –

District of Columbia

235,041 238,000 235,786 0. 9%

Hawaii

307,112 313,669 288,357

8. 8%

Illinois

2,751,808 2,735,224 2,847,460 -3. 9%

Iowa

547,950 557,501 493,516

13. 0%

Kentucky

943,673 982,229 840,926 16. 8%

Maryland

1,023,129 1,034,084 856,297

20. 8%

Massachusetts

1,453,932 1,453,213 1,296,359 12. 1%

Michigan

1,849,657 1,879,568 1,912,009

-1. 7%

Minnesota

973,782 938,480 873,040 7. 5%

Nevada

381,137 404,825 332,560

21. 7%

New Hampshire

130,444 133,1 10 127,082 4. 7%

New Jersey

1,322,484 1,361,513 1,283,851

6. 0%

New Mexico

594,609 602,014 572,1 1 1 5. 2%

New York

5,775,826 5,823,995 5,678,417

2. 6%

North Dakota

– – 66,786 –

Ohio

2,339,557 2,361,103 2,341,481

0. 8%

Oregon

842,639 844,220 626,356 34. 8%

Rhode Island

217,110 224,583 190,833

17. 7%

Vermont

166,206 168,233 127,162 32. 3%

Washington

1,325,334 1,369,179 1,117,576

22. 5%

West Virginia

456,781 473,401 354,544 33. 5%

Subtotal for States Expanding Medicaid

36, 587, 337 37, 087, 276 34, 285, 617 7. 7%

Subtotal for States with Expansions in Effect in February

34, 607, 236 35, 074, 598 32, 246, 526 8. 3%

Subtotal for States Expanding Medicaid who reported in the reporting month and the baseline period

36, 359, 366 36, 857, 111 34, 218, 831

Difference, February to Baseline

2, 638, 280

States Not Expanding Medicaid reported only a 1.6 percent increase over the same period.

States Not Expanding Medicaid

Marketplace Type

Enrollment

Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, January 2014 (updated) (IX)

Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, February 2014 (preliminary) (X)

Pre-ACA Monthly Average Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment (July-Sept 2013) (XI)

% Change From Pre-ACA to February 2014 (XII)

Alaska

117,483 116,720 120,946 -3.5%

Alabama

774,136 769,235 799,176

-3.7%

Florida

3,121,517 3,233,195 2,987,843 8.2%

Georgia

1,742,401 1,726,597 1,702,650

1.4%

Idaho

267,079 268,606 251,926 6.6%

Indiana

1,140,416 1,120,847 1,120,674

0.0%

Kansas

410,878 415,284 397,989 4.3%

Louisiana

1,004,479 1,008,176 1,019,787

-1.1%

Maine

—-

Missouri

1,041,775 1,042,951 –

Mississippi

714,243 720,292 714,055 0.9%

Montana

144,772 149,245 139,604

6.9%

North Carolina

1,786,916 1,786,369 1,744,160 2.4%

Nebraska

237,047 227,049 244,600

-7.2%

Oklahoma

803,729 814,881 790,051 3.1%

Pennsylvania

2,395,464 2,398,718 2,386,046

0.5%

South Carolina

1,011,919 1,017,333 988,349 2.9%

South Dakota

114,779 115,013 115,501

-0.4%

Tennessee

1,269,860 1,279,336 1,268,459 0.9%

Texas

4,422,076 4,425,316 4,441,605

-0.4%

Utah

300,277 330,306 322,442 2.4%

Virginia

1,029,389 1,033,119 1,003,266

3.0%

Wisconsin

1,163,603 1,146,895 1,161,876 -1.3%

Wyoming

70,392 72,378 72,207

0.2%

Subtotal for States Not Expanding Medicaid

25, 084, 630 25, 217, 861 23, 793, 214 1. 6%

Subtotal for States Not Expanding Medicaid who reported in the reporting month and the baseline period

24, 042, 855 24, 174, 910 23, 793, 214

Difference, February to Baseline

381, 696

Total Across All States

61, 671, 967 62, 305, 137 58, 078, 831 5. 2%

Total for States who reported in the reporting month and the baseline period

60, 402, 221 61, 032, 021 58, 012, 045

Difference, February to Baseline

3, 019, 976

Written by
Data Journalism Editor

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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