Medicaid Enrollment Will Tank States Who Took Fed Money, Nearly 1/5 Nationwide Receive Benefits

Nearly one-fifth of all Americans — 61 million nationwide — are on Medicaid, the already-financially insolvent government-run health care program. States who participated in the Medicaid expansion program under ObamaCare, will be in serious financial trouble after the initial three years are up, when Uncle Sam no longer bares any of the financial burden.

A new report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services found states who opted out of the Medicaid expansion see their states’ Medicaid enrollment rolls expanding their rolls at only a fraction of the rate as those who opted in, with some states even reporting a net decrease relative to the prior year baseline.

In total, for the 46 states (including the District of Columbia) who reported both February 2014 enrollment data and data from July — September of 2013, which is the pre-open enrollment baseline period, roughly 61.0 million individuals (nearly one-fifth of the total 312 million) were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in February, a gain of around 3 million additional individuals and a 5.2 percent increase over the average monthly enrollment for July — September of 2013.

In states who opted for the Medicaid expansion and whose expansions were in effect in February 2014, Medicaid enrollment rose by a whopping 8.3 percent compared to the July — September 2013 baseline period, while states that are not expanding Medicaid reported just a 1.6 percent increase over the same period.

Even before the passage of ObamaCare, the Medicaid actuaries warned of the program’s insolvency. According to a document obtained by People’s Pundit Daily in Nov. from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, new ObamaCare costs are projected to push total health expenditures to over $5 trillion a year by 2022.

“In 2014, national health spending is projected to rise to 7.4 percent, or 2.1 percentage- points faster than in the absence of reform [or, passing ObamaCare], as the major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are expected to result in 22 million fewer uninsured people (compared to estimates that exclude the law’s impacts). Increases in Medicaid spending growth of 18.0 percent and private health insurance growth of 7.9 percent both contribute to this overall acceleration in national health spending in 2014.”

However, because of the bailout provision included in the ACA, considering the risk pool is now far more slanted than previously expected, these numbers are actually understating the true cost. Even the new CMS report admits these new figures will under-project costs if used to score.

“Note that the February 2014 enrollment numbers understate total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment because not all states are reporting, the data are preliminary, and the data do not include most individuals who will later be found eligible for Medicaid or CHIP effective in February through retroactive coverage,” the report reads.

And that doesn’t even include missed data from reporting delays. Below are the tables for states expanding Medicaid and states not expanding Medicaid, which clearly show some states who were already in financial dire straits expanding at an unsustainable rate.

I wonder what kind of care Medicaid will provide when cost controls inevitably are implemented? Maybe we could ask Paul Krugman — Mr. “Yes, death panels are built into the system” — for an answer?

States Expanding Medicaid	Marketplace Type	Enrollment
		Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, January 2014 (updated) (IX)	Total Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment, February 2014 (preliminary) (X)	Pre-ACA Monthly Average Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment (July-Sept 2013) (XI)	% Change From Pre-ACA to February 2014 (XII)
Arizona		1,207,102 1,234,401 1,201,770 2. 7%
Arkansas		751,576 763,356		680,920 12. 1%
California		9,816,000 9,999,000 9,157,000 9. 2%
Colorado		946,477 962,210 783,420			22. 8%
Connecticut		—-
Delaware		227,971 230,165 –			–
District of Columbia		235,041 238,000 235,786 0. 9%
Hawaii		307,112 313,669 288,357			8. 8%
Illinois		2,751,808 2,735,224 2,847,460 -3. 9%
Iowa		547,950 557,501 493,516			13. 0%
Kentucky		943,673 982,229 840,926 16. 8%
Maryland		1,023,129 1,034,084 856,297			20. 8%
Massachusetts		1,453,932 1,453,213 1,296,359 12. 1%
Michigan		1,849,657 1,879,568 1,912,009			-1. 7%
Minnesota		973,782 938,480 873,040 7. 5%
Nevada		381,137 404,825 332,560			21. 7%
New Hampshire		130,444 133,1 10 127,082 4. 7%
New Jersey		1,322,484 1,361,513 1,283,851			6. 0%
New Mexico		594,609 602,014 572,1 1 1 5. 2%
New York		5,775,826 5,823,995 5,678,417			2. 6%
North Dakota		– – 66,786 –
Ohio		2,339,557 2,361,103 2,341,481			0. 8%
Oregon		842,639 844,220 626,356 34. 8%
Rhode Island		217,110 224,583 190,833			17. 7%
Vermont		166,206 168,233 127,162 32. 3%
Washington		1,325,334 1,369,179 1,117,576			22. 5%
West Virginia		456,781 473,401 354,544 33. 5%
Subtotal for States Expanding Medicaid		36, 587, 337 37, 087, 276 34, 285, 617 7. 7%
Subtotal for States with Expansions in Effect in February		34, 607, 236 35, 074, 598 32, 246, 526 8. 3%
Subtotal for States Expanding Medicaid who reported in the reporting month and the baseline period		36, 359, 366 36, 857, 111 34, 218, 831			Difference, February to Baseline 2, 638, 280

States Not Expanding Medicaid reported only a 1.6 percent increase over the same period.