The latest Montana Senate poll conducted on March 17 – 18 affirms our “Likely Republican” rating on our 2014 Senate Map Predictions, despite a slick move Democrats hoped would give John Walsh an edge.
Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock appointed Lt. Gov. John Walsh to serve out the remainder of retiring Sen. Max Baucus’ term, in hopes to keep the red state’s Senate seat in the party.
Republican Congressman Steve Daines is well ahead of interim Senator John Walsh and fellow Democrat John Bohlinger in the first Montana Senate poll released by Rasmussen Reports.
A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters finds that Daines leads Walsh by 14 points – 51 percent to 37 percent, with just 4 percent saying they like some other candidate in the race, and 9 percent undecided.
Avid readers of PeoplesPunditDaily.com know full-well we assign pollsters a rating based upon past accuracy, and that Rasmussen Reports scores poorly on that rating. However, after two cycles (2010 – 2012) of overestimating Republican support, the controversial, once-thought to be conservative pollster has moved far to the left, overstating Democratic support in nearly every measurement in 2013 and 2014.
If the pattern holds, it is likely that Republican Steve Daines leads Democrat John Walsh by a slightly larger margin, perhaps even more than the PPP Montana Senate poll. Until we gather more data, it is difficult to say for sure. Still, the dynamics of the race make this contest a prime Republican pick-up opportunity, in a cycle they need to net 6 seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate.
View Polling Below Or Read Full Analysis Of The 2014 Montana Senate Race
| Poll | Date | Sample | Daines (R) | Walsh (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 11/15 – 3/18 | 750 LV | 51.5 | 36.5 | Daines +15 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/17 – 3/18 | 750 LV | 51 | 37 | Daines +14 |
| PPP (D) | 11/15 – 11/17 | 952 RV | 52 | 35 | Daines +17 |
