Incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker (left) is likely to defeat Democrat Mary Burke, according to the latest WI Gov polls and variables used to determine election predictions in model used at People’s Pundit Daily.com.
The latest WI governor polls show incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker with an advantage over Democrat Mary Burke. Because the polling surveys that have Walker ahead come from pollsters who have a particularly stellar track record of accuracy, we see no reason to adjust our “Likely Republican” rating on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions.
In the latest survey conducted for Human Events by Gravis Marketing, voters were asked “If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Walker, or Democrat Mary Burke?”
Among all respondent voters, 49 percent said they will vote for Scott Walker, while only 44 percent said they would vote for Mary Burke. While voters are generally split down party lines, independents break against Burke and go for Walker 37.7 percent to 47.4 percent, respectively.
As avid readers of People’s Pundit Daily know, we rate pollsters based on past performance for accuracy and assign them a rating of 1 through 4, with 1 being the top rating a pollster can be assigned. Because Gravis Marketing has a stellar rating (1.5) based upon past accuracy, and Rasmussen Reports has a negative-leaning rating (4), we are assured the race is going in Walker’s favor.
Admittedly, even the least-accurate pollster get things right from time to time, as even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and visa versa. But we simply cannot corroborate that the race is as close as Rasmussen Reports said it is. When it comes to the state of Wisconsin, specifically, Marquette University takes the top spot for accuracy, as they nailed the Walker 2010 election, the recall contest and the 2012 presidential election, each time. Marquette University currently has a stellar rating (1).
The latest Marquette University Poll, which was released after the initial publication of this article, has indeed corroborated our assessment of the status of race.
The new Marquette Law School Poll found Gov. Scott Walker leading Democrat Mary Burke 48 to 41 percent. Though voters are split on the job performance at 47 percent, by 54 to 42 percent they say the state is headed in the right direction, but also voters favor the Walker agenda. A majority, 55 percent, favor the $500 million tax cut enacted by the legislature and signed into law by Walker, while 34 percent oppose the tax reduction. This is the case even though 58 percent say those tax cuts do more to benefit the wealthy, while 25 percent see the middle class and 9 percent see the poor as benefiting more.
That’s a real testament to Walker’s ability to articulate the conservative agenda, without class warfare distracting from the overall result. While Burke has time and room to improve, she is seen unfavorably by a margin of 19 to 22 percent, while Walker is above water 49 favorable to 47 unfavorable.
Until we see data from a reputable pollster or an immense surge in fundraising, then the race is “Likely” Walker’s to lose.
View Polling (UPDATED) Below, Expanded WI Governor Race Analysis Or Return To 2014 Governor Map
| Poll | Date | Sample | Walker (R) | Burke (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 3/10 – 3/23 | — | 46.5 | 43.0 | Walker +5 |
| Marquette University | 3/20 – 3/23 | 801 RV | 48 | 41 | Walker +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/10 – 3/11 | 500 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Marquette University | 1/20 – 1/23 | 802 RV | 47 | 41 | Walker +6 |
| Marquette University | 10/21 – 10/24 | 800 RV | 47 | 45 | Walker +2 |
| PPP (D) | 9/13 – 9/16 | 1180 RV | 48 | 42 | Walker +6 |
