Sen. Kay Hagan, left, D-N.C., and North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis greet prior to a live televised debate at UNC-TV studios in Research Triangle Park, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014. (Photo: GERRY BROOME/AP)
Republican Thom Tillis has edged ahead of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the final NC Senate polls out Monday, giving Tillis a small lead a day before voters decide. Two polls — one a partisan poll conducted by Harper Polling, and one by a reliable pollster Gravis Marketing — give Tillis a tenuous 1- and 2-point lead going into Election Day, respectively.
However, PPD’s election projection model has not yet made a final prediction.
“We are still crunching the numbers given the early vote and PPD’s own tracking poll data,” says PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “Hagan no doubt had a small, consistent lead going into this past week, but no incumbent Democratic senator has won reelection in modern history polling under 45 percent at this point in the cycle.”
Democrats are trumping an increase in early voting from 2010, with black voter turnout increasing their share of the electorate to 25 percent, at last count. But while black voters make up an important part of Hagan’s coalition, Baris says it isn’t enough to get her to a majority.
“Black voters did a good job getting out the vote for Hagan, but these comparisons to 2010 are misleading,” he said. “That will drop on Election Day as it did in 2008, 2010 and 2012. It isn’t enough to simply increase their margin from 2010 when they are playing on GOP turf.”
(Read Also: Early Voting Reality: Black Voters Alone Won’t Save Senate Democrats)
In 2012, black early voting accounted for 27.4 of the electorate, but fell nearly 2 points on Election Day. Democrats were ahead 47.6 – 31.5 in early voting the day before the election in 2012, yet went on to lose statewide. That spread was even worse for Republicans in 2010, but they were victorious in races across the state by double-digit margins.
“Black voters are a smaller percent of the early vote than they were in 2012, and Mitt Romney flipped the state anyway,” he added. “She needs to win over a third of the white vote — roughly 36 or 38 percent — and she’s just under that now.”
Voters age 18-29, another important part of the Democratic coalition, are roughly only 5 percent of the early vote totals, down from over 13 percent in 2012. Meanwhile, voters 60-plus currently account for 52.2 percent, which is up from roughly 35 percent in 2012. Democrats currently hold 47.6 to 31.9 percent lead in early voting, but that, too, is somewhat misleading.
“The electorate is looking older and whiter than we expected in North Carolina, and many of those voters are registered Democrats, but they vote Republican,” Baris said. “Democrats were in a better shape in 2012, but they got swamped on Election Day.”
Democrats have a greater amount of registered voters in the state, but party disloyalty among older, whiter voters gives the GOP the edge. Yet, Baris says it is exactly Hagan’s strength with these voters that has made her such a strong candidate.
“Hagan has shown she can outperform Obama and other Democrats with this bloc of voters,” he added. “It’s just not clear if she is doing it again or not. It’s more than likely the closest race in the country.”
North Carolina Senate Polls – Tillis (R) Vs. Hagan (D)
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Hagan (D) | Tillis (R) | Haugh (L) | Raw Spread | PPD Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 10/19 – 10/31 | — | — | 44.4 | 44.6 | 4.7 | Tillis +.2 | Tie 44.4 – 44.4 |
| Harper (R) | 10/28 – 10/30 | 1006 LV | 4.3 | 44 | 46 | 6 | Tillis +2 | |
| Gravis Marketing | 10/29 – 10/30 | 1006 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 47 | 4 | Tillis +1 | |
| FOX News | 10/28 – 10/30 | 909 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 42 | 4 | Hagan +1 | |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 10/27 – 10/30 | 559 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 46 | 4 | Hagan +2 | |
| YouGov | 10/25 – 10/31 | 1727 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 41 | 2 | Hagan +3 | |
| Vox Populi | 10/29 – 10/30 | 615 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 48 | – | Tillis +5 | |
| High Point/SurveyUSA | 10/21 – 10/25 | 802 LV | 3.5 | 44 | 44 | 5 | Tie | |
| NBC News/Marist | 10/19 – 10/23 | 756 LV | 3.6 | 43 | 43 | 7 | Tie | |
| PPP (D) | 10/16 – 10/18 | 780 LV | 3.5 | 46 | 43 | 5 | Hagan +3 | |
| Civitas (R) | 10/15 – 10/18 | 600 RV | 4.0 | 41 | 42 | 6 | Tillis +1 |
