Why the Election Model Favors Martha McSally in Arizona Senate Race

The U.S. Senate election projection in Arizona held at Slightly Republican in favor of Rep. Martha McSally on the PPD Election Projection Model. Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema would need to win the independent and Election Day vote by overwhelming margins in order to prevail.

There are roughly 3.7 million registered voters in Arizona.

Of the 1,586,783 voters who have already cast their ballots, 656,822 are Republican ballots, 538,174 are Democratic ballots, 11,799 are minor parties and 379,988 are independents, or other. Below is a district-by-district table breakdown of the early vote by party, including the secretary of state update for Monday.

[su_table responsive=”yes” class=”az-ev-district-party-totals”]

District	Democrat	Minor	Republican	Other	Total	Edge
1	57161	969	61840	36247	156217	R+4679
2	83046	1570	72147	48146	204909	D+10899
3	56319	946	30696	25366	113327	D+25623
4	40888	1094	100622	47129	189733	R+59734
5	55596	1661	105508	52362	215127	R+49912
6	64102	1656	101918	54794	222470	R+37816
7	49955	818	17378	20027	88178	D+32577
8	61378	1370	106367	54105	223220	R+44989
9	69729	1715	60346	41812	173602	D+9383
Total	538174	11799	656822	379988	1586783	R+118648

[/su_table]

There is no doubt both parties got their bases to the polls for midterms. For the purpose of this article we are focusing on the statewide impact, but the impact can be seen in the districts, as well.

The pickup opportunity for Democrats in Rep. McSally’s district could very well be offset by a net pickup for the GOP in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District. Again, as with so many of these races, the independents will decide the outcome. Here is the county-by-county table breakdown of the early vote by party.

[su_table responsive=”yes” class=”az-ev-county-party-totals”]

County	Democrat	Minor	Republican	OTH	Total	Edge
Apache	4310	33	2564	1477	8384	D+1750
Cochise	8740	195	12158	6656	27749	R+3418
Coconino	13862	307	9077	7300	30546	D+4785
Gila	4217	76	7670	2887	14850	R+3453
Graham	1714	25	3414	904	6057	R+1700
Greenlee	784	12	538	266	1600	D+246
La Paz	583	15	1562	731	2891	R+979
Maricopa	319709	7645	413398	236538	977290	R+93689
Mohave	8078	168	23695	10147	42088	R+15617
Navajo	6075	96	8791	3633	18595	R+2716
Pima	116340	2061	88060	62393	268854	D+28280
Pinal	20780	439	30642	18015	69876	R+9862
Santa Cruz	4373	50	1603	1560	7586	D+2770
Yavapai	18922	506	41749	20773	81950	R+22827
Yuma	9687	171	11901	6708	28467	R+2214
Total	538174	11799	656822	379988	1586783	R+118648

[/su_table]

Polls are all over the place. Our data indicates the independent vote, once breaking heavily for Rep. Sinema, shifted considerably. In truth, we’ve seen independents in Arizona flirt with the idea of voting for Democratic candidates statewide, only to swing back in the final stretch.

Rep. Sinema not only needs to carry a bloc of voters who haven’t backed a Democrat since 2008, when Barack Obama won them by just 51% to 46%, but she’ll need to do it by a huge margin. It would be historic.

(Please note: Estimates peg early vote in Arizona upwards of 80% before Election Day. This number is of course unknown and why we model several turnout different outcomes.)

In order to simply pull to a statistical tie, she would need to be winning both the unaffiliated “other” and minor-party vote by a margin roughly in the 2-to-1 ballpark. Again, some polling suggests it is possible, and some polling does not.

How does this task match up to the historic vote? Politics is filled with first-timers, but it’s not been done by a modern Democrat in the state of Arizona.

Mr. Obama went on to lose independents in Arizona to Mitt Romney by nearly the same margin he had previously carried them against John McCain, 51% to 45%. Donald Trump carried independents in Arizona, 47% to 44%, while outgoing Republican Senator Jeff Flake won them by just 46% to 45%.

But for Rep. Sinema to overcome the R+118,648 early vote lead, up from R+116,009 before the Monday update, she would first need a historic margin no Democrat has received among independents in the Grand Canyon State. Further, considering what vote is left on the table, she will also need a monster Election Day turnout that favors Democrats.

Judging by the data, which include what electorate is showing up, there’s not much evidence outside of some polls indicating she’ll get enough. That being said, polling also indicates Rep. McSally has a larger share of the vote left on the table. Rep. Sinema will almost certainly need every vote she can get.

While Green Party candidate Angela Green withdrew from the race in a last-minute attempt to boost Rep. Sinema’s chances, some of the state’s 6,463 registered members undoubtedly already voted for Green, whose name will remain on the ballot. That would actually expand the model’s required margin among independents for the Democratic candidate, given polling data indicates single-digit crossover rates only slightly favoring Rep. Sinema.

Before the update on Monday, which gave Rep. Sinema a nice few thousand-vote boost in Pima County, the electorate looked like this.

[su_table responsive=”yes” class=”az-ev-electorate-totals”]

Republican	Democrat	Other	Female	Median Age	Mean Age
41.8%	33.9%	23.6%	51.2%	62	58.7
Republican			48.5%	63	61.3
Democrat			57.5%	61	57.2
Other			47.4%	59	56.6
Libertarian			33.7%	45	46
Green			43.5%	46	46.9

[/su_table]

After the update on Monday, the electorate shifted slightly in favor of Rep. Sinema, though it’s only marginally better for Democrats. It’s worth noting that a popular GOP governor running away with the vote is also on the same ballot. Even the slightest of coattails in a race like this could mean an earlier call.

[su_table responsive=”yes” class=”az-ev-electorate-totals”]

Republican	Democrat	Other	Female	Median Age	Mean Age
41.4%	33.9%	23.9%	51.3%	61	58.2
Republican			48.5%	63	60.9
Democrat			57.7%	60	56.2
Other			47.6%	59	56
Libertarian			33.7%	44	45.5
Green			43.9%	45	46.5

[/su_table]

Regardless, Rep. McSally’s edge wasn’t hurt all that much in the latest update. The net partisan ballot edge gained even as the mean age ticked down by 0.5% and the Republican share of the electorate ticked down slightly to 41.4%. That may have something to do with the mean age of the Republican electorate also ticking down by 0.4%.

Overall, the Republican share of the vote is still nearly double what it was in 2016.

While we hear talk of a surge in younger voters at the polls, as we pointed out in our last model update in Nevada, these comparisons have focused on 2014. As with Nevada, there were not comparable statewide elections held.

So, to sum it up, we do believe it is possible for Rep. Sinema to improve her party’s margin among independent voters in Arizona, particularly if it is more educated and less rural. But the historical odds are against this. Republicans are voting at very high rates and have showed no signs up letting up. Recent polling indicates as much as 30% of Rep. McSally’s vote is still on the table, while just 10% for Rep. Sinema.

We will watch the electorate closely and the independent vote. But for now, the U.S. Senate election projection in Arizona remains Slightly Republican. Rep. McSally prevails in the high Republican turnout model, the base model and only loses by under two points in the high Democratic turnout model.