A new survey conducted for Human Events by Gravis Marketing finds Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with a healthy lead against Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin and Democrat Allison Lundergan-Grimes. In the survey of 1,359 registered Kentucky voters conducted from April 15-17, McConnell leads his primary challenger 51 – 34 percent and general election challenger 43 – 36 percent.
While the poll is news the McConnell camp can tout, there are some findings that should be of serious concern for McConnell if he cares about his political future. What stands out immediately about the survey’s findings is that — even though Kentucky voters are supporting McConnell — they don’t necessarily like him or feel he is in-step with their positions. It would appear that Bevin hasn’t made his case, Grimes is even farther away from Kentucky values, and they will hold their noses when voting for McConnell.
When all voters were asked, “Has Senator McConnell done enough to end ObamaCare?” 46 percent said that he did not do enough, while 29 percent said he had and 25 percent were not sure. Still, Bevin hasn’t gained much momentum, despite the fact that Kentucky voters are clearly aligned more with his views. McConnell, regardless of his denials, did have plans to ram through amnesty for illegal aliens before he realized he would have a tough reelection. And we know Democrat Allison Grimes will assuredly back any Democratic plan. But Kentucky voters oppose granting a supposed path to citizenship by a whopping 68 – 17 percent margin, with only 15 percent saying they are unsure.
Democrats had thought they might have a pick up opportunity in the Kentucky Senate race considering how unpopular McConnell has become in the state, but this has always been somewhat of a dream. Much of McConnell’s unfavorable ratings are due to his own right flank, not that Kentucky is becoming more fertile ground for Democrats.
Some Democratic pollsters, such as PPP, have released some unexplainable results in this race, but we currently and confidently rate the race “Likely McConnell” and have since the beginning of the cycle.
A New York Times/Kaiser poll released this week found McConnell ahead of Grimes by just 1 point, 44 – 43 percent. But, as Bill Kristol pointed out at the Weekly Standard, this poll was deeply flawed and intentionally dishonest. McConnell is running for a state that Mitt Romney carried by 23 points in 2012, yet the sample of respondents was never weighted to reflect as much, thus showing a 3-point advantage for Romney, far from reality.
And it was across-the-board bunk.