Front-runners Set to Bounce Back in Upcoming Primaries
After defeats in Wisconsin, frontrunners Donald J. Trump and Hillary R. Clinton hold leads in the upcoming primaries in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. A slew of new polling show a steeper hill to climb for The Badger State’s winning candidates.
In New York, which votes first on April 16, Mr. Trump leads his closest rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on the PPD average by 36.2%. Worth noting, despite his decisive victory in Wisconsin or the telling voters Gov. John Kasich won’t be on the ballot in The Empire State, Sen. Cruz has fallen to third. In the latest [content_tooltip id=”38870″ title=”Monmouth University”], Mr. Trump leads Gov. Kasich 52% to 25%, with Sen. receiving just 17%.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
In fact, if just those results hold, Mr. Trump would become the first candidate on the Republican side to win a majority in his home state. Sen. Cruz won just 43.8% of the vote in The Lone Star State, while Gov. Kasich came a bit closer in The Buckeye State with 46.8%. For comparison, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won his home state with more than 86% of the vote.
A recent [content_tooltip id=”38038″ title=”Quinnipiac University (Q-Poll)”] released before Wisconsin had the New York businessman winning every single congressional district, while an [content_tooltip id=”38226″ title=”Emerson College Polling University”] had him above 64%. Whether he rebounds to his previous levels remains to be seen, but demographically speaking it is very possible that Mr. Trump hauls in all 95 delegates on his home turf.
On the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton leads Sen. Sanders by 23.3% on the PPD average of New York Democratic Primary polls. However, that lead has narrowed to 10 and 11 points in the aforementioned surveys. Sen. Sanders has expressed confidence in his ability to win in the state where Mrs. Clinton served as senator after first lady. But demographics–specifically the black vote–do not favor the senator, though he is certain to pick up some of the state’s 291 delegates.
On April 26, both parties will also hold their contests in Pennsylvania and Maryland.
For Republicans, Pennsylvania is a winner-take-all “loophole” primary, which is a different animal favoring insider candidates. However, Mr. Trump holds a significant 13.4% lead on the PPD average of polls in The Keystone State, making a rout if he pulls it off difficult to bury in delegate rules. While the numbers are tightening, the delegate-rich (71) state is very receptive to his message on trade.
Mrs. Clinton leads Sen. Sanders on the PPD average by 17.7%, but that lead too has begun to narrow. The self-proclaimed democratic socialist senator has hammered Clinton’s support for the North American Free Trade Agreement, known as NAFTA, and promised Democratic primary voters that he would oppose the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement. There are 210 delegates to be allocated proportionately in Pennsylvania.
“Wisconsin is a better fit for Sen. Sanders not only because it will almost certainly be whiter, but because Mrs. Clinton has stronger relationships with the Democratic Establishment and black community in Pennsylvania,” says PPD senior political analyst Richard Baris. “That said, these contests are proportional and it is in the Rust Belt. He would be derelict not to compete for these votes.”
In Maryland, Mr. Trump leads in the latest survey by 10 points and 13% on the PPD average. Sen. Cruz, as seems to be the case in New York, has collapsed and fallen behind Gov. Kasich in second with (24.5%). The state has a large amount of Catholic voters, a bloc Trump won in South Carolina and other states despite a public feud with Pope Francis, who criticized his position on immigration.
Mrs. Clinton holds a 14-point lead in the latest poll and a more sizable 24-point lead on the PPD average. Sen. Sanders has reached out to Black Lives Matter activists in Baltimore, but thus far has not been able to draw significant support from the black community away from Mrs. Clinton.
There are 38 winner-take-all delegates up for grabs on the GOP side and 118 on the Democratic side.
Dave Francis / April 8, 2016
GREED, CRONYISM, POWER AND CONTROL. THE PROFITEERS ARE SELLING US DOWN THE RIVER.
Has many Americans actually thought through why the GOP establishment or the Democrats are running in panic away from Donald Trump of being nominated for President? Decide this for a very powerful factor, which hundreds of thousands of well-heeled people have portfolios of the awful free trade agreements profits that our political hacks negotiated, and who have their comfortable fingers in the lucrative pie. The wealthy have a big stake in anything that amplifies their income. Whether its the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) its facilitated hundreds of billions of dollars for the Mexican Auto industry, that the US worker losses out on? Who makes the money throughout our country, the people who realize if Trump gets in; their days of lucrative stocks and shares are not going to be the same. Under this present administration nothing has been done to stop the bleeding of jobs and our manufacturing base. It is the same with China, Japan, India, and a whole catalog of companies that are either vanishing overseas, or to Mexico.
Independent presidential candidate Ross Perot in 1992 was opposed to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) the foundation of his national campaign, forewarning voters that because of huge wage discrepancy linking the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, “There will be a giant sucking sound going south.”
AND GOD WAS HE RIGHT.
So the evidence keeps piling up? Jobs making cars, trucks, electronics, apparel, and other merchandise moved to Mexico, and job losses piled up in the United States, especially in the Midwest where those products used to be made. The claims by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that NAFTA trade has created millions of jobs “are based on deceitful accounting, which counts only jobs gained by exports but ignores jobs lost due to growing imports,” he adds. “The U.S. economy has grown in the past 20 years despite NAFTA, not because of it. Worse yet, production workers’ wages have suffered in the United States from not just Mexico, but China, Japan and soon the Transpacific Partnership. (TPP).
Just drive around the huge open wildernesses that once housed manufacturing plants, giant open areas where now the weeds grow between the concrete. I have viewed the empty warehouse, workshop that have been vandalized in Detroit, Michigan, with thousands of smashed windows and the rusted gates locked, and barred. This is a facsimile around the country as huge companies have left for foreign countries. Huge complexes now empty which were once thriving in the truck and car industry, car parts are empty of any movement. If that wasn’t enough, we now have a deficit with the Chinese Peoples Republic of $600 billion dollars; with Mexico coming in second at $60 Billion dollars.
THIS IS NOT FAIR AND BALANCED FREE TRADE, AND ITS NOT–FREE TRADE.
What is ultimately incredible that while we are losing millions of jobs, the Mexican border which is wide open owing to President Obamas orders of not to harass anybody crossing the border, huge amounts of drugs that are killing our people is being imported and the impoverished illegal aliens who are stealing jobs and welfare.
Politicians who have bloated portfolios are complicit, within both parties. Answer me this about Ted Cruz in just 3 years as a Senator and now has a net worth of $4.8 million and then Ohioans Governor John Kasick who now has a net worth of $22 million dollars. In such a short time they have gained considerable wealth? The People are tired of establishment legislators, getting rich off the American People. There is only one possible way to make that sort of money, which in my mind and that’s ‘insider trading’ on Wall Street by their friends and cronies who have that inside knowledge of what’s trading.
What’s going on behind the average citizens backs, that thousands of companies are leaving our shores? Chrysler, Ford, Carrier, Nabisco (Oreo Cookies); and these are not small manufacturing plants.
Ted Cruz in 2015 secured the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal for the Establishment hierarchy. This resembles the NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE TREATY (NAFTA) taking millions of auto jobs and manufacturing that have vanished to Mexico, costing US taxpayers $60 Billion dollars annually. China deficit is $500 Billion in 2015. This is just one of the policies that Cruz was involved in and helped passed. Ted Cruz about developing jobs when he votes for the TPP Transpacific partnership and John Kasick sold out the American people when he joined with the Republicans in approving of the North American Trade Agreement, where hundreds of thousands of American Automobile jobs have moved off to Mexico. We receive nothing in return from these free trade agreements, other than cheap products and loss of jobs.
Donald Trump is already a billionaire in his own right in real estate development. Washington hates him in both parties because they cannot buy him…or his silence.